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Violent Crime Trends in Brevard, NC: A Study of Decreasing Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Brevard, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 21 incidents in 2010 to 14 in 2022, representing a 33.33% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 13,682 in 2010 to 14,417 in 2022, an increase of 5.37%.
Examining murder trends, Brevard has maintained an exceptionally low rate, with zero murders reported in all years from 2010 to 2022. This consistent absence of murder cases translates to a 0% share of state murders throughout the period. The stability in this metric, despite population growth, suggests effective crime prevention strategies or social factors contributing to a low-risk environment for homicides.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variation over the years. In 2010, there were 4 reported cases, representing 0.35% of state rape crimes. By 2022, the number decreased slightly to 3 cases, accounting for 0.16% of state rape crimes. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.29 in 2010 to 0.21 in 2022, indicating a relative improvement in this area of violent crime despite population growth.
Robbery trends in Brevard have been relatively low but fluctuating. In 2010, there were 3 reported robberies, representing 0.04% of state robbery cases. This number peaked at 7 in 2012 (0.09% of state cases) but decreased to 0 by 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.22 in 2010 to 0 in 2022, suggesting a significant improvement in public safety regarding robbery offenses.
Aggravated assault cases have shown some variability. In 2010, there were 14 reported cases, accounting for 0.1% of state aggravated assaults. By 2022, this number decreased slightly to 11 cases, representing 0.05% of state cases. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.02 in 2010 to 0.76 in 2022, indicating a modest improvement relative to population growth.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,554 per square mile in 2010 to 2,691 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate showed a general downward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the racial composition and crime rates. As the white population percentage increased slightly from 81% in 2013 to 85% in 2022, violent crime rates generally decreased.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Brevard may see a further reduction in violent crimes. The model suggests that the total number of violent crimes could decrease to around 10-12 incidents per year, with robbery rates potentially remaining very low or at zero, and aggravated assaults possibly decreasing to 8-10 cases annually.
In summary, Brevard has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction over the past decade. The most significant improvements have been seen in robbery rates, while murder rates have remained consistently at zero. Despite population growth, the city has managed to maintain or improve its violent crime rates across most categories. These trends, if continued, suggest that Brevard is on a path toward becoming an increasingly safer community, with violent crime rates potentially reaching new lows in the coming years.
