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Violent Crime Trends in Branson: Tourist Destination Sees Overall Improvement Despite Rape Increase
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Branson, Missouri, a popular tourist destination known for its entertainment venues and outdoor attractions, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city decreased by 54.96%, from 131 incidents to 59. During this same period, the population grew by 24.80%, from 14,906 to 18,603 residents, indicating a general trend of improved safety despite population growth.
Murder rates in the city have fluctuated over the years, with no clear trend. The city reported zero murders in several years, including 2011, 2012, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022. The highest number of murders was recorded in 2013 and 2021, with two incidents each. When murders did occur, they represented a small percentage of the state's total, ranging from 0.22% to 0.66%. Given the city's relatively small population, even a single murder can significantly impact the per capita rate. For instance, in 2021, the murder rate was approximately 0.11 per 1,000 residents, which then dropped to zero in 2022.
Rape incidents in the city have shown an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 7 reported rapes, which increased to 18 by 2022, representing a 157.14% increase. The rape rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.47 in 2010 to 0.97 in 2022. The city's share of the state's rape cases also increased, from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.85% in 2022. This trend is concerning and suggests a need for increased prevention efforts and support services for victims.
Robbery rates in the city have shown a general decline over the years. In 2010, there were 19 reported robberies, which decreased to 7 by 2022, representing a 63.16% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.27 in 2010 to 0.38 in 2022. The city's share of the state's robbery cases fluctuated but generally decreased, from 0.34% in 2010 to 0.23% in 2022. This trend indicates improved safety in terms of property crimes.
Aggravated assault incidents have shown a significant decrease over the years. In 2010, there were 104 reported aggravated assaults, which decreased to 34 by 2022, representing a 67.31% reduction. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 residents fell from 6.98 in 2010 to 1.83 in 2022. The city's share of the state's aggravated assault cases also decreased substantially, from 0.73% in 2010 to 0.20% in 2022. This trend suggests a notable improvement in public safety regarding violent confrontations.
There appears to be a correlation between the city's changing demographics and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 90% in 2013 to 80% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 5% to 11% during the same period, violent crime rates generally declined. This suggests that the diversification of the city's population has not led to an increase in violent crime, contrary to some common misconceptions.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, Branson may see a further reduction in overall violent crime rates. The city could potentially experience a 20-25% decrease in total violent crimes compared to 2022 levels, with aggravated assaults and robberies continuing their downward trend. However, rape incidents may continue to be a concern, potentially increasing by 10-15% if current trends persist without intervention.
In conclusion, Branson has made significant strides in reducing violent crime over the past decade, particularly in areas of aggravated assault and robbery. The city's growing population and increasing diversity have not negatively impacted overall safety. However, the rising trend in rape cases remains a critical area for focus and improvement. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining and enhancing public safety measures will be crucial to sustain the positive trends in violent crime reduction while addressing the specific challenges identified in this analysis.
