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Violent Crime Trends in Bradford, PA: A Decade of Increasing Aggravated Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Bradford, located in Pennsylvania, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, starting at 49 in 2010, peaking at 94 in 2014, and ending at 84 in 2018 - an overall increase of 71.4%. During this same period, the city's population declined steadily from 8,962 in 2010 to 8,552 in 2018, a decrease of 4.6%.
The murder rate in the city has remained relatively low, with only three reported cases between 2010 and 2018. In 2010 and 2011, there were two and one murders respectively, followed by no reported murders until 2015 when one case occurred. This translates to a murder rate that fluctuated between 0 and 0.22 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics varied, reaching 0.4% in 2010 and 0.21% in 2011 and 2015, while being non-existent in other years. These figures suggest that while murder is not a persistent issue, isolated incidents can significantly impact the city's crime statistics due to its small population.
Rape incidents in the city showed some variation over the years. The number of reported rapes ranged from a low of 2 in 2017 to a high of 6 in 2011. The rape rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated between 0.23 and 0.67. The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics varied from 0.11% to 0.4% during this period. The highest percentage (0.4%) was recorded in 2011, coinciding with the highest number of reported cases. This suggests that while rape incidents are relatively infrequent, they can have a significant impact on the city's crime profile when they do occur.
Robbery trends in the city have been relatively stable, with low numbers reported throughout the period. The number of robberies ranged from 0 to 4, with the highest number occurring in 2014. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.45 in 2014 and was as low as 0 in 2013 and 2015. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.04% of the state total. This indicates that robbery is not a major concern for the city compared to other forms of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases increased significantly from 41 in 2010 to a peak of 88 in 2015, before declining to 77 in 2018. This represents an overall increase of 87.8% over the period. The rate of aggravated assaults per 1,000 residents rose from 4.57 in 2010 to 10.07 in 2015, before decreasing to 9.0 in 2018. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics grew from 0.28% in 2010 to 0.72% in 2015, indicating that this crime became a more significant issue relative to the rest of the state.
A strong correlation exists between the city's declining population density and the rise in violent crime rates, particularly aggravated assaults. As the population density decreased from 2,694 per square mile in 2010 to 2,571 in 2018, the violent crime rate increased. This suggests that the shrinking population may be linked to factors that contribute to higher crime rates, such as economic challenges or changes in community dynamics.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a slight decrease in overall violent crimes if current trends continue. The aggravated assault rate is likely to stabilize or decrease slightly, while other violent crimes may remain at similar low levels.
In conclusion, Bradford has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime over the past decade. While murder and robbery rates have remained relatively low, aggravated assaults have become a more significant concern. The inverse relationship between population density and crime rates suggests that addressing underlying socioeconomic factors may be crucial in managing future crime trends in the city.
