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Violent Crime Trends in Bowling Green, Florida: A Story of Overall Decline Amid Population Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Bowling Green, located in Florida, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime numbers, with a notable overall increase from 8 incidents in 2010 to 9 in 2022, representing a 12.5% increase. During the same period, the population decreased from 4,110 in 2010 to 3,153 in 2022, a 23.3% reduction.
Examining murder trends, the city reported sporadic incidents. There were two murders in 2011 and one in 2018, with no murders reported in other years. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.48 in 2011 and was 0.24 in 2018. The percentage of state murders was highest in 2011 at 0.35% and 0.15% in 2018. These figures suggest that while murders are rare, they have a significant impact on the city's crime statistics when they occur.
Rape incidents in the city have been infrequent but show a concerning spike in recent years. From 2010 to 2021, there were only three reported rapes (one each in 2010, 2011, and 2015). However, in 2022, there was a dramatic increase to 5 reported rapes. This translates to a rape rate of 1.59 per 1,000 people in 2022, compared to 0.24 in 2010. The percentage of state rapes also jumped significantly from 0.04% in earlier years to 0.3% in 2022. This sudden increase warrants attention and further investigation into potential causes and prevention strategies.
Robbery trends in the city have been relatively low and inconsistent. There were no robberies reported in most years, with exceptions in 2011, 2012, 2013 (one each year), and a spike of 5 robberies in 2016. The robbery rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2016 at 1.26. The percentage of state robberies peaked at 0.04% in 2016. Overall, robbery does not appear to be a persistent issue in the city, but the 2016 spike suggests the potential for occasional increases.
Aggravated assault has been the most consistent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents ranged from a high of 10 in 2011 and 2012 to a low of 4 in 2022. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people fluctuated between 2.39 in 2011 and 1.27 in 2022. The percentage of state aggravated assaults remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.02% to 0.03% throughout the period. While there has been a general downward trend in aggravated assaults, they continue to be the most common violent crime in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 3,252 per square mile in 2010 to 2,495 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 58% in 2013 to 64% in 2017, there was a slight increase in violent crimes, followed by a decrease as the Hispanic population percentage declined to 50% by 2022.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's forecasted that by 2029, the city may experience a slight increase in overall violent crimes, potentially reaching 10-12 incidents annually. Rape and aggravated assault are likely to be the primary contributors to this increase, while murder and robbery rates are expected to remain low and sporadic.
In summary, Bowling Green has shown a complex pattern of violent crime over the past decade. While overall violent crime numbers have remained relatively low, the recent spike in rape incidents and the persistent occurrence of aggravated assaults highlight areas of concern. The city's changing demographics and decreasing population density appear to have some influence on crime trends. Moving forward, focused efforts on preventing sexual assaults and addressing the root causes of aggravated assaults could significantly improve the city's safety profile.
