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Violent Crime Trends in Boulder, Montana: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Boulder, Montana, a small community with a population of 1,544 in 2022, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes varied, reaching a peak of 12 in 2015 and dropping to 2 in 2019, before rising slightly to 4 in 2020. This represents a 33.33% increase in violent crimes from 2010 to 2020. During the same period, the city's population decreased by 36.71%, from 1,866 in 2010 to 1,181 in 2020.
Analyzing murder trends, the data shows no reported cases of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter from 2010 to 2020. This consistent zero rate persists despite population changes, maintaining a 0% contribution to the state's murder statistics throughout the observed period.
Rape incidents in the city are also rare, with only one reported case in 2017. This single incident represented 0.28% of the state's total rape cases that year. The rape rate per 1,000 people was approximately 0.87 in 2017, based on the population of 1,146. Given the isolated nature of this incident and the absence of reported cases in other years, it's challenging to establish a meaningful trend or correlation with population changes.
Robbery data for Boulder shows no reported incidents from 2010 to 2020. This absence of robberies remains consistent regardless of population fluctuations, indicating a 0% contribution to the state's robbery statistics throughout the observed period.
Aggravated assault has been the primary contributor to violent crime in the city. The number of cases fluctuated over the years, with a notable peak of 12 incidents in 2015, representing 0.9% of the state's aggravated assaults that year. The rate per 1,000 people varied, reaching its highest at 8.02 in 2015 (based on a population of 1,497) and dropping to 1.95 in 2019 (based on a population of 1,028). By 2020, there were 4 cases, accounting for 0.21% of the state's total and a rate of 3.39 per 1,000 people.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,659 per square mile in 2010 to 1,050 in 2020, violent crime rates showed some increase, particularly in aggravated assaults. However, this correlation is not consistently strong throughout the period.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential slight increase in aggravated assaults, possibly reaching 5-6 cases annually. This projection is based on the historical fluctuations and the recent upward trend observed from 2019 to 2020. Other violent crime categories are expected to remain at or near zero, given their historical patterns.
In summary, Boulder, Montana, has maintained relatively low violent crime rates, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The city's small population and fluctuating density appear to have some influence on crime rates, though the relationship is not consistently strong. Despite some variations, the overall violent crime situation in the city remains manageable, with no reported murders or robberies, and only isolated incidents of rape. The projected slight increase in aggravated assaults warrants continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention efforts to maintain the city's overall safety and quality of life.
