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Violent Crime Trends in Bordentown, NJ: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Historic Urban Enclave
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Bordentown, New Jersey, a small urban area spanning just 0.93 square miles, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. Over the years from 2010 to 2015, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, ranging from a low of 0 in 2011 and 2013 to a high of 3 in 2015. This represents a 200% increase in violent crime over this period. Concurrently, the population showed a slight decline, decreasing by 1.9% from 3,976 in 2010 to 3,901 in 2015.
Regarding murder trends, Bordentown maintained a consistent record of zero murders throughout the reported period from 2010 to 2015. This stability in the absence of murders is noteworthy, especially considering the population changes. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained at 0, and the city's contribution to the state's murder statistics was consistently 0%.
Rape incidents in the city showed some variation. In 2010, there was one reported rape case, representing 0.19% of the state's total. However, in subsequent years (2011, 2012, and 2015), no rapes were reported. Data for 2013 and 2014 were not available. The rape rate per 1,000 people was approximately 0.25 in 2010 and 0 in the years with reported data, indicating an overall decrease.
Robbery trends in Bordentown fluctuated over the years. There were no reported robberies in 2010, 2011, and 2013. However, one robbery was reported in each of the years 2012, 2014, and 2015. This represents an increase from 0 to 0.26 robberies per 1,000 people between 2010 and 2015. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics rose from 0% to 0.02% during this period.
Aggravated assault incidents showed an upward trend. There were no reported cases in 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2014. However, one case was reported in 2012, and this increased to two cases in 2015. This change represents an increase from 0 to 0.51 aggravated assaults per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics rose from 0% to 0.04% during this period.
When examining correlations, a notable relationship emerges between the increase in violent crime and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of white residents decreased slightly from 78% in 2015 to 74% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 6% to 8% during the same period. This demographic shift coincided with the increase in violent crime incidents.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the available data and observed patterns, we might anticipate a continuation of the upward trend in violent crime incidents. The model suggests that the city could potentially see an average of 4-5 violent crime incidents per year by 2029, representing a modest increase from the 3 incidents reported in 2015.
In summary, Bordentown has experienced a notable increase in violent crime from 2010 to 2015, despite its small size and slightly declining population. The most significant changes were observed in robbery and aggravated assault incidents. While the city maintains a low crime rate compared to larger urban areas, the upward trend in violent crime, particularly when viewed against the backdrop of subtle demographic shifts, warrants attention from local law enforcement and community leaders in Bordentown.
