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Violent Crime Trends in Boonville, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations and Low Murder Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Boonville, Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated significantly, starting at 8 in 2010 and ending at 20 in 2022, representing a 150% increase. However, this increase wasn't steady, with notable peaks of 31 incidents in 2013 and 28 in 2020. Concurrently, the population decreased from 10,635 in 2010 to 9,769 in 2022, a 8.14% reduction.
Murder rates in the city have remained remarkably low, with only one incident reported in 2011 over the entire period. This translates to a rate of 0.095 murders per 1,000 people in 2011, dropping to zero for all other years. The percentage of state murders attributable to the city was 0.34% in 2011, indicating an isolated incident rather than a persistent issue. This suggests that despite other crime fluctuations, the city has maintained a consistently safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents have shown more variability. The city reported no rapes in several years, including 2014-2016, but saw a significant spike in 2021 with 12 reported cases. This spike represented a rate of 1.16 rapes per 1,000 people and 0.57% of the state's total rapes for that year. The inconsistency in rape reports, ranging from 0 to 12 cases annually, suggests potential issues with reporting or classification rather than a clear trend.
Robbery rates have remained relatively low throughout the period. The highest number of robberies reported was 4 in 2017, translating to 0.37 robberies per 1,000 people and 0.07% of the state's total. Most years saw 0 to 2 robberies, indicating that this form of violent crime is not a significant concern for the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases fluctuated considerably, peaking at 29 in 2013 (2.74 per 1,000 people) and dropping to as low as 5 in 2011. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults varied, reaching a high of 0.21% in 2013. The inconsistent pattern suggests localized factors influencing these incidents rather than a steady trend.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,378 per square mile in 2010 to 1,266 in 2022, violent crime rates showed some fluctuation but generally increased. Median rent increased from $570 in 2013 to $748 in 2022, but this doesn't show a clear correlation with crime rates. The racial composition remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently around 83-85% and the Black population at 9-10%, showing no strong correlation with crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. This prediction is based on the observed fluctuations and the recent trend towards lower numbers in some categories. However, aggravated assaults may continue to be the primary concern, potentially averaging 15-20 cases annually.
In summary, Boonville has experienced varying levels of violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most significant issue. The city's murder rate remains exceptionally low, while rape and robbery incidents have shown inconsistent patterns. Despite a decreasing population, violent crime rates have not shown a proportional decrease, suggesting that factors beyond population size are influencing crime trends. Moving forward, focused efforts on preventing aggravated assaults could significantly impact the city's overall violent crime statistics.
