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Violent Crime Trends in Bolivar, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations and Overall Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Bolivar, located in Missouri, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city varied significantly, ranging from a low of 14 in 2022 to a high of 79 in 2016, representing a 36.4% decrease overall. During this same period, the population grew from 14,760 in 2010 to 14,730 in 2022, a slight decrease of 0.2%.
Murder rates in Bolivar have remained relatively low, with most years reporting zero murders. The exception was 2020, when two murders were recorded, representing 0.32% of the state's total murders that year. This translates to a rate of 0.13 murders per 1,000 residents in 2020. Given the rarity of murders in the city, this incident appears to be an anomaly rather than indicative of a broader trend.
Rape incidents have shown more variability over the years. The number of reported rapes increased from zero in 2010 to a peak of 14 in 2013 and 2020, before decreasing to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.93 in 2013 and stood at 0.14 in 2022. The city's percentage of state rape cases fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.78% in 2013 and declining to 0.09% by 2022. This trend suggests improved safety measures or reporting practices over time.
Robbery rates in the city have remained relatively low, with a maximum of 7 incidents reported in 2015. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.46 in 2015 and decreased to 0.07 by 2022. The city's share of state robberies has been consistently low, never exceeding 0.12% of the state total. This indicates that robbery is not a major concern for the city compared to other violent crimes.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in Bolivar. The number of incidents peaked at 65 in 2016, representing a rate of 4.12 per 1,000 residents. By 2022, this had decreased to 11 incidents or 0.75 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.39% in 2016 and falling to 0.06% by 2022. This significant decrease suggests effective law enforcement strategies or community initiatives.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates, with both peaking around 2016-2017. The racial distribution has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing over 90% of residents, showing no strong correlation with crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, we can forecast that violent crime rates in Bolivar are likely to continue their downward trajectory over the next five years. By 2029, we might expect to see total violent crimes decrease further, potentially reaching single digits if current trends persist.
In summary, Bolivar has shown a general improvement in violent crime rates over the past decade, particularly in recent years. The significant decrease in aggravated assaults and the maintenance of low murder and robbery rates are positive indicators for the city's safety. While rape incidents have fluctuated, the overall trend is towards fewer cases. These improvements, coupled with the stable population, suggest that Bolivar is becoming increasingly safe, with violent crime rates that are a small fraction of the state's total. The city's law enforcement and community initiatives appear to be effective in managing and reducing violent crime, positioning Bolivar as a relatively safe place to live within Missouri.
