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Violent Crime Trends in Blakely, Georgia: A Decade of Demographic Shifts and Rising Aggravated Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Blakely, a city in Georgia, has witnessed a significant increase in violent crime over the past decade, despite a slight population decrease. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes rose from 34 to 80, marking a 135.3% increase, while the population decreased by 2.4% from 8,007 to 7,812 residents. This stark contrast between crime rates and population change highlights a concerning trend for the community.
Murder rates in Blakely have remained relatively low, with most years recording zero murders. However, isolated incidents occurred in 2011 and 2020, each with one murder reported, resulting in a rate of approximately 0.13 murders per 1,000 people in those years. Despite the infrequency of murders, when they do occur, they represent a notable portion of the state's total, given the city's small size.
Rape incidents in Blakely have fluctuated over the years, ranging from 0 to 4 annually. The highest count of 4 was recorded in 2022, translating to a rate of about 0.51 rapes per 1,000 people, up from 0.12 per 1,000 in 2010. The city's contribution to the state's total rape cases has increased from 0.14% in 2010 to 0.30% in 2022, indicating a growing share of the state's rape incidents occurring in this small community.
Robbery trends in Blakely have fluctuated but generally remained low. The number of robberies peaked at 7 in 2011 (0.91 per 1,000 people) and dropped to 0 in 2018, before rising again to 4 in 2022 (0.51 per 1,000 people). The city's percentage of state robberies has varied, reaching a high of 0.32% in 2019 and settling at 0.18% in 2022. This suggests that while robberies are not frequent, they do contribute a noticeable portion to the state's total for a city of its size.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in Blakely, showing a significant upward trend. The number of cases increased from 33 in 2010 to 71 in 2022, representing a 115.2% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 4.12 in 2010 to 9.09 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases has also grown substantially, from 0.29% in 2010 to 0.54% in 2022. This indicates that aggravated assault is becoming an increasingly significant issue for the community.
A correlation appears to exist between the increase in violent crimes and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of Black residents increased from 53% in 2013 to 58% in 2022, while the percentage of White residents decreased from 45% to 40% over the same period. This demographic shift coincides with the rise in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults.
Population density in Blakely has remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 456 people per square mile in 2010 to 445 in 2022. This minor change in density does not seem to have a strong correlation with the increase in violent crimes.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it is projected that by 2029, Blakely could see approximately 120-130 violent crimes annually if current trends continue. This forecast suggests a potential 50-62.5% increase from the 2022 figure of 80 violent crimes.
In conclusion, Blakely has experienced a concerning rise in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, over the past decade. While murder rates remain low, the increases in rape, robbery, and especially aggravated assault warrant attention. The changing racial demographics of the city appear to correlate with these crime trends. As the community faces these challenges, focused efforts on crime prevention and community engagement will be crucial in addressing and potentially reversing these trends in the coming years.
