Robbery trends show minimal occurrences, with only two reported incidents over the entire period. One robbery was reported in 2014 and another in 2017. In 2014, with a population of 1,278, the robbery rate was about 0.78 per 1,000 people, representing 0.02% of the state's robberies. In 2017, when the population had decreased to 931, the single robbery resulted in a rate of approximately 1.07 per 1,000 people, again accounting for 0.02% of the state's total. The low frequency of robberies suggests a relatively secure environment for property and personal safety.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents has varied significantly, with a peak of 9 cases in 2012 when the population was at its highest (1,536). This resulted in a rate of about 5.86 per 1,000 people and represented 0.06% of the state's aggravated assaults that year. In contrast, years like 2010 and 2013 saw no reported aggravated assaults. The most recent data from 2020 shows 2 cases, with a population of 1,006, resulting in a rate of approximately 1.99 per 1,000 people and accounting for 0.01% of the state's total. The fluctuation in aggravated assault cases appears to correlate somewhat with population changes, but not consistently.

When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, a notable relationship emerges with population density. The peak in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, coincided with periods of higher population density. For instance, the highest number of aggravated assaults (9) occurred in 2012 when the population density was at its peak of 1,112 people per square mile. Conversely, years with lower population densities tended to have fewer violent crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the historical data and current trends, it's anticipated that the city will continue to experience low levels of violent crime. The sporadic nature of incidents, particularly for rape and robbery, makes precise predictions challenging. However, aggravated assaults may continue to fluctuate, possibly averaging 2-3 cases per year, assuming the population stabilizes or continues its slight downward trend.

In summary, Birch Tree has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate over the years, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The absence of murders, rare occurrences of rape and robbery, and fluctuating but generally low levels of aggravated assault paint a picture of a community that, despite demographic changes, has managed to maintain a relatively safe environment. The correlation between population density and violent crime rates suggests that community dynamics play a role in the incidence of such crimes, emphasizing the importance of community-based crime prevention strategies as the city evolves.