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Violent Crime Trends in Bertrand, Missouri: A Decade of Stability in a Small Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Bertrand, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2013 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, ranging from 0 to 3 per year. Over this period, the population showed a slight overall increase from 967 in 2013 to 1,073 in 2022, representing a 10.96% increase despite some year-to-year fluctuations.
Analyzing murder trends in the city reveals a consistent pattern of zero incidents throughout the observed period from 2013 to 2022. This stability in murder rates, maintaining at 0 per 1,000 residents, suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of homicides. The percentage of state crime for murder remained at 0% throughout, indicating that the city did not contribute to the state's murder statistics during this time.
Rape incidents in the city also showed a consistent pattern of zero reported cases from 2013 to 2022. The rate of rape per 1,000 residents remained at 0, and the city's contribution to the state's rape statistics was 0% throughout the period. This data suggests that reported sexual violence has been notably low or non-existent in the community during the observed years.
Robbery trends in the city were minimal, with only one incident reported in 2013. This single case represented 0.02% of the state's robbery incidents for that year. From 2014 to 2022, no robberies were reported, resulting in a rate of 0 per 1,000 residents and 0% contribution to state robbery statistics. The decline from one case to zero indicates a positive trend in this category of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most variable violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated between 0 and 3 per year. Notable years include 2014 and 2017, each with 3 reported cases, representing 0.02% of the state's aggravated assaults. In 2022, there were 2 cases, accounting for 0.01% of state incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents varied accordingly, reaching highs of 2.52 in 2014 and 2.58 in 2017, and settling at 1.86 per 1,000 in 2022. These fluctuations suggest that aggravated assault remains the primary concern among violent crimes in the city.
Examining correlations between violent crime and demographic factors, a notable relationship emerges with the racial composition of the city. The percentage of white residents decreased from 90% in 2013 to 73% in 2022, while the percentage of Black residents increased from 6% to 19% over the same period. This demographic shift coincides with a slight increase in violent crime incidents, particularly aggravated assaults, towards the end of the observed period.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential slight increase in aggravated assaults. Based on the historical data and recent trends, the model suggests that the city might experience 2-3 aggravated assault cases per year by 2029. Other violent crime categories are expected to remain at or near zero, given their historical stability.
In summary, Bertrand has maintained relatively low levels of violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The absence of murders and rapes, coupled with minimal robbery incidents, paints a picture of a generally safe community. However, the slight upward trend in aggravated assaults, potentially correlating with demographic changes, warrants attention from local law enforcement and community leaders to ensure public safety remains a priority in the coming years.
