Robbery trends show more variation. The number of robberies peaked at 10 in 2014, representing a rate of 0.52 per 1,000 people. By 2022, this had decreased to 1 robbery, or 0.05 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state robbery cases fluctuated, peaking at 0.14% in 2020 before decreasing to 0.02% in 2022. This indicates a significant improvement in robbery rates over recent years.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The highest number of assaults was 13 in 2020, equating to 0.69 per 1,000 people. By 2022, this had decreased to 6 incidents or 0.32 per 1,000 people. The city's share of state aggravated assault cases peaked at 0.12% in 2013 but has since decreased to 0.03% in 2022, suggesting a positive trend in reducing this type of crime.

There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 3,347 per square mile in 2010 to 3,265 in 2022, there was a general trend of decreasing violent crime, particularly evident in the lower numbers of robberies and aggravated assaults in recent years.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, if current patterns continue, we can expect the total number of violent crimes in Berea to remain relatively low, potentially stabilizing around 5-10 incidents annually by 2029. This projection suggests a continued low crime rate relative to the city's population.

In summary, Berea has shown a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction over the past decade. The consistent absence of murders, decreasing trends in rapes and robberies, and the recent decline in aggravated assaults all point to an improving safety profile for the city. These trends, coupled with the slight population decrease and changes in population density, suggest that Berea is maintaining and potentially improving its status as a relatively safe community within Ohio.