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Violent Crime Trends in Belvidere: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Shrinking New Jersey Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Belvidere, located in New Jersey, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates alongside a declining population over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied significantly, ranging from 0 to 8 incidents per year, while the population decreased by 7.6% from 2,741 to 2,532 residents.
The murder rate in this small town has remained consistently at zero throughout the analyzed period. With no reported murders from 2010 to 2022, the city has maintained a 0% contribution to the state's murder statistics. This absence of homicides, despite population changes, suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of the most severe violent crime.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. The data shows only two reported cases: one in 2017 and another in 2019, both representing 0.14% of the state's total rape cases for those years. In 2017, the rape rate per 1,000 people was 0.38, increasing slightly to 0.39 in 2019 due to the minor population decrease. The most recent data from 2022 indicates one rape case, accounting for 0.15% of the state's total, with a rate of 0.39 per 1,000 residents. These figures suggest that while rape occurrences are rare, they have maintained a relatively constant rate when they do occur.
Robbery trends in the city have been minimal. Only two incidents were reported over the 12-year period: one in 2014 and one in 2022. The 2014 case represented 0.01% of the state's robberies, while the 2022 incident accounted for 0.04%. The robbery rate per 1,000 people was 0.38 in 2014 and 0.39 in 2022, showing a slight increase due to population decline. This low frequency of robberies indicates that it is not a prevalent issue in the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most common violent crime in the city, though numbers have fluctuated. Notable years include 2010 with 2 cases (0.02% of state total), 2017 with 3 cases (0.05% of state total), and a peak in 2019 with 7 cases (0.11% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, from 0.73 in 2010 to 1.14 in 2017, and 2.69 in 2019. By 2022, there was 1 case (0.02% of state total), with a rate of 0.39 per 1,000 people. This trend suggests that while aggravated assault remains a concern, its frequency has decreased in recent years.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between violent crime rates and the city's racial composition. As the white population percentage slightly decreased from 94% in 2013 to 91% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 2% to 7% over the same period, there was a noticeable fluctuation in violent crime rates. However, the relationship is not straightforward, as crime rates varied independently of these gradual demographic shifts.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization of violent crime rates at low levels. Based on the recent downward trend and the city's small population, the model predicts an average of 1-2 violent crimes per year, with aggravated assault likely remaining the most common type.
In summary, Belvidere has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite population decline. The absence of murders, infrequent occurrences of rape and robbery, and fluctuating but recently decreasing aggravated assault rates paint a picture of a generally safe community. The town's changing demographics may have some influence on crime patterns, but the overall trend suggests a stable, low-crime environment for the foreseeable future.
