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Violent Crime Trends in Belton, Texas: A Decade of Change Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Belton, Texas, a city with a rich history and growing population, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city decreased by 50.6%, from 79 to 39 incidents. This reduction occurred alongside a substantial population growth of 41.2%, from 27,174 to 38,380 residents during the same period.
Murder rates in the city have fluctuated over the years, with no consistent trend. The city recorded zero murders in several years (2010, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2019) and peaked at 3 murders in 2022. Despite the increase in absolute numbers, the murder rate per 1,000 people remained relatively low, rising from 0 to 0.078 per 1,000 residents between 2010 and 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide murder statistics has been minimal, ranging from 0% to 0.18% of the state's total murders.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were no reported rapes, but by 2022, the number rose to 14 cases. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 to 0.365 during this period. More alarmingly, the city's percentage of state-wide rape cases grew significantly, from 0% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
Robbery cases have remained relatively stable over the years, with some fluctuations. The number of robberies decreased slightly from 10 in 2010 to 6 in 2022. When adjusted for population growth, the robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.368 to 0.156. The city's contribution to state-wide robbery statistics has remained low, ranging between 0.02% and 0.05% throughout the period.
Aggravated assault cases have shown a significant decrease over time. In 2010, there were 69 cases, which dropped to 16 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.54 to 0.417 during this period. The city's share of state-wide aggravated assault cases also decreased from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, indicating a more substantial reduction compared to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,343 per square mile in 2010 to 1,897 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. As the percentage of white residents decreased from 68% in 2013 to 60% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 21% to 27%, violent crime rates generally declined.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is anticipated that the overall violent crime rate will continue to decrease, albeit at a slower pace. The murder rate is expected to stabilize around 0.08 per 1,000 residents, while rape incidents may continue to rise slightly before plateauing. Robbery rates are predicted to remain relatively stable, and aggravated assault rates are expected to continue their downward trend.
In summary, Belton has experienced a significant reduction in overall violent crime rates despite substantial population growth. The most notable improvements have been in aggravated assault cases, while rape incidents have emerged as an area of concern. The city's changing demographics and increasing population density appear to correlate with these crime trends. Moving forward, continued focus on addressing rape cases and maintaining the downward trend in other violent crimes will be crucial for Belton's safety and development.
