Robbery has been virtually non-existent in the city, with zero incidents reported from 2011 to 2022. Consequently, the robbery rate per 1,000 people and the city's contribution to state robbery figures have consistently remained at 0. This absence of robberies is a positive indicator of the city's safety in terms of property-related violent crimes.

Aggravated assault trends show some variation over the years. The city experienced 2 cases in 2011, 4 cases each in 2012 and 2013, and then a single case in 2019. This translates to rates of 1.11, 2.39, 2.35, and 0.60 per 1,000 people for those years, respectively. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault figures was 0.02% in 2011, 0.04% in 2012 and 2013, and 0.01% in 2019. All other years from 2014 to 2022 recorded zero aggravated assaults. This fluctuation, followed by a period of no incidents, suggests an overall improvement in this category of violent crime.

When examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between violent crime and population density. Years with higher population density, such as 2015 (1,612 people per square mile) and 2017 (1,579 people per square mile), tended to have lower or zero violent crime incidents. Conversely, years with lower density, like 2012 (1,455 people per square mile), saw higher violent crime numbers. However, this correlation is not strong enough to draw definitive conclusions.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the low and sporadic nature of violent crimes in the city. Based on the historical data, we might expect to see 0-1 violent crime incidents per year, with the possibility of isolated spikes not exceeding 2-3 incidents in any given year. The majority of these are likely to be aggravated assaults or isolated rape cases, given the historical pattern.

In summary, Beaver demonstrates a remarkably low and inconsistent violent crime rate. The absence of murders and robberies, combined with infrequent occurrences of rape and aggravated assault, paints a picture of a relatively safe community. The fluctuations in violent crime do not seem to correlate strongly with population changes, suggesting that other factors may be at play in the isolated incidents that do occur. As the city moves forward, maintaining vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in preserving the overall safety that characterizes this small Oklahoma town.