Robbery trends in the city have shown significant improvement. In 2010, there were 45 robberies reported, which decreased to just 5 in 2022, an impressive 88.9% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.25 in 2010 to 0.15 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies also decreased from 0.45% to 0.16% over this period. This substantial decline in robberies indicates a notable improvement in public safety regarding property crimes.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in Bay City, but it too has shown improvement. In 2010, there were 151 aggravated assaults reported, which decreased to 145 in 2022, a 4% reduction. The assault rate per 1,000 people slightly increased from 4.20 in 2010 to 4.28 in 2022 due to the population decrease. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.48% and 0.95% over the years.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 3,535 people per square mile in 2010 to 3,329 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate also showed a general downward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the slight increase in the Hispanic population (from 8% in 2013 to 10% in 2022) and the decrease in violent crimes, though this relationship would require further investigation to determine causality.

Applying predictive models based on the current trends, it is forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Bay City could see a further reduction in violent crimes. The total number of violent crimes could potentially decrease to around 150-160 incidents per year. Robberies might continue their sharp decline, potentially reaching single digits consistently. Rape incidents could stabilize around 25-30 cases annually. Aggravated assaults may continue their gradual decrease, potentially dropping to around 130-140 cases per year.

In summary, Bay City has made significant strides in reducing violent crime over the past decade. The substantial decreases in robberies and rapes, coupled with relatively stable low murder rates, indicate an improving safety situation in the city. While aggravated assaults remain a concern, their slight downward trend is encouraging. These improvements, occurring despite a declining population, suggest effective law enforcement strategies and community initiatives. As Bay City moves forward, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for the continued well-being and attractiveness of the community.