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Violent Crime Trends in Batavia, NY: A Decade of Fluctuations and Low Murder Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Batavia, a city in New York State, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 45.45%, rising from 44 incidents in 2010 to 64 in 2022. During this same period, the city's population remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly by 0.46% from 15,582 in 2010 to 15,510 in 2022.
Murder rates in the city have remained consistently low, with most years recording zero incidents. The only exceptions were in 2015 and 2018, when one and three murders were reported respectively. These incidents represented 0.19% and 0.65% of the state's total murders in those years. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2018 at 0.20, but returned to zero in subsequent years. This low and sporadic occurrence of murders suggests that homicide is not a persistent issue in the community.
Rape incidents have shown considerable variation over the years. The number of reported rapes increased from 7 in 2010 to a peak of 20 in 2017, before declining to 10 in 2022. This represents a 42.86% increase over the entire period. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.45 in 2010 to a high of 1.35 in 2017, before decreasing to 0.64 in 2022. The city's percentage of state rape cases fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.81% in 2014 and dropping to 0.29% by 2022. These figures indicate that while rape remains a concern, recent years have shown some improvement.
Robbery trends in the city have been relatively stable with some fluctuations. The number of robberies increased from 7 in 2010 to a peak of 16 in 2017, before decreasing to 8 in 2022, representing a 14.29% overall increase. The robbery rate per 1,000 people followed a similar pattern, peaking at 1.08 in 2017 and declining to 0.52 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies increased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2017, before decreasing to 0.04% in 2022. This suggests that while robbery rates have risen slightly over the decade, recent years have seen a downward trend.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant increase among violent crimes in the city. Incidents rose from 30 in 2010 to 46 in 2022, a 53.33% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.92 in 2010 to 2.97 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults grew from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022, peaking at 0.15% in 2017. This upward trend in aggravated assaults is concerning and warrants attention from local law enforcement and community leaders.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density decreased from 2,999 per square mile in 2010 to 2,985 in 2022, violent crimes generally increased. Additionally, there's a weak positive correlation between the percentage of Hispanic residents (which increased from 4% in 2013 to 6% in 2022) and the overall violent crime rate.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Batavia may see a slight increase in overall violent crimes. The model suggests aggravated assaults could reach around 50-55 incidents annually, while robbery and rape cases may stabilize around 10-12 each per year. Murder rates are expected to remain very low, with potentially zero to one incident per year.
In summary, Batavia has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime over the past decade. While murder rates have remained consistently low, there have been concerning increases in aggravated assaults and fluctuations in rape and robbery incidents. The inverse relationship between population density and crime rates, along with the correlation with demographic changes, suggests that societal and structural factors may be influencing these trends. As the city moves forward, focusing on community-based crime prevention strategies and addressing the root causes of aggravated assaults should be priorities for maintaining public safety and improving quality of life for Batavia's residents.
