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Violent Crime Trends in Balcones Heights: Small Texas City Faces Rising Aggravated Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Balcones Heights, a small city in Texas covering just 0.65 square miles, has experienced significant fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, alongside notable population changes. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 79.17%, from 24 to 43 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 6.27%, from 4,259 to 4,526 residents.
Murder rates in the city have remained exceptionally low, with only two incidents reported over the 13-year period - one in 2019 and another in 2020. This translates to a murder rate of 0.22 per 1,000 people in those years. The percentage of state murders attributed to Balcones Heights was 0.09% in 2019 and 0.06% in 2020, indicating a minimal contribution to overall state figures. The rarity of these events makes it challenging to establish a meaningful trend or correlation with population changes.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with no clear upward or downward trend. The highest number of reported rapes was 3 in both 2014 and 2015, representing a rate of 0.75 per 1,000 people. The most recent data from 2022 shows no reported rapes. The city's contribution to state rape figures has remained low, never exceeding 0.03% of the state total. This suggests that rape is not a prevalent issue in the community compared to state averages.
Robbery incidents have shown a general downward trend, peaking at 17 cases in 2012 (3.85 per 1,000 people) and decreasing to 8 cases in 2022 (1.77 per 1,000 people). This represents a 52.94% decrease in robberies over the decade. The city's contribution to state robbery figures has fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.06% in 2012 and stabilizing around 0.03-0.04% in recent years. This decline in robberies, even as the population grew, suggests improving safety conditions in this aspect.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in Balcones Heights, showing an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 20 cases (4.70 per 1,000 people), which rose to 35 cases in 2022 (7.73 per 1,000 people), a 75% increase. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault figures has grown from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022. This trend is concerning and suggests a growing issue with violent confrontations in the community.
A strong correlation exists between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 75% in 2013 to 80% in 2022, violent crimes per 1,000 people also rose from 2.07 to 9.50. Additionally, there's a notable inverse relationship between the white population percentage and crime rates, with the white population decreasing from 21% in 2013 to 12% in 2022 as crime rates increased.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Balcones Heights may see: a continued increase in aggravated assaults, potentially reaching 45-50 cases per year; robbery rates likely to remain stable or slightly decrease, hovering around 6-8 cases annually; rape and murder incidents to remain sporadic and low, with 0-3 cases per year for each crime; and an overall violent crime rate potentially increasing to 11-12 incidents per 1,000 people.
In summary, Balcones Heights has experienced a concerning rise in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, over the past decade despite its small size. The city's changing demographic composition appears to correlate with these crime trends, suggesting a need for targeted community interventions and law enforcement strategies. While some violent crime categories like robbery have improved, the overall trajectory calls for increased attention to public safety measures in this small Texas community.
