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Violent Crime Trends in Baker, Montana: A Decade of Stability in a Small Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Baker, Montana, a small community with a population of 1,834 as of 2022, has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. This analysis examines the trends in violent crime from 2010 to 2022, during which time the total number of violent crimes varied from a low of 0 in 2012 to a high of 7 in 2014. Over this period, the population remained relatively stable, growing slightly from 1,988 in 2010 to 1,834 in 2022, representing a small decrease of about 7.7%.
Regarding murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, the city has maintained a consistent record of zero incidents throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This statistic reflects positively on the city's safety, especially considering the small population size. The rate per 1,000 people has remained at 0, and the percentage of state crime for this category has also consistently been 0%.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variability over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 3 in 2014 and 2020, while several years saw no reported incidents. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at approximately 1.48 in 2014 and 1.48 in 2020. The percentage of state crime for rape fluctuated, with the highest being 1.08% in 2014. This suggests that while rape is not a frequent occurrence, when it does happen, it can represent a significant portion of the state's total due to the city's small size.
Robbery has been virtually non-existent in the city, with zero reported cases throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This consistent absence of robbery incidents speaks to the relatively safe environment of the community in terms of property-related violent crimes.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents ranged from 0 to 4 per year, with the highest count of 4 occurring in 2011, 2014, and 2021. The rate per 1,000 people for aggravated assault peaked at approximately 2.01 in 2014. The percentage of state crime for aggravated assault varied, reaching its highest at 0.4% in 2011 and 2014. These figures suggest that while aggravated assault occurs more frequently than other violent crimes in the city, it still represents a small fraction of the state's total.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak relationship between violent crime rates and population density. For instance, in 2014, when the violent crime rate peaked at 7 incidents, the population density was 1,800 per square mile, one of the highest in the period. However, this correlation is not consistent throughout the years.
Median rent has shown a general upward trend from $512 in 2013 to $784 in 2022, but there doesn't seem to be a strong correlation with violent crime rates. The racial distribution has remained predominantly white throughout the period, with slight increases in diversity, but no clear correlation with crime rates is evident.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the historical data, we might expect the total number of violent crimes to remain relatively low, likely ranging between 2 to 4 incidents per year. The city's small population and historical trends suggest that dramatic changes in crime rates are unlikely unless significant demographic or economic shifts occur.
In summary, Baker has maintained a relatively low and stable violent crime rate over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most common form of violent crime. The absence of murders and robberies, combined with infrequent occurrences of rape, paints a picture of a generally safe small town. While year-to-year fluctuations exist, the overall trend suggests a community where violent crime is not a prevalent issue, reflecting positively on the quality of life for its residents.
