Robbery in the city was extremely rare, with only one incident reported in 2014. This single robbery occurred when the population was 1,998, resulting in a rate of 0.5 robberies per 1,000 people for that year. The robbery represented less than 0.01% of the state's total robberies. The absence of robberies in most years indicates that this is not a significant ongoing concern for the community.

Aggravated assault was the most common violent crime in Baird, though still occurring at relatively low levels. The number of incidents ranged from zero to six per year, with the highest number (6) reported in 2017. This peak year saw a rate of 2.97 aggravated assaults per 1,000 people. In terms of state percentages, aggravated assaults in Baird typically accounted for 0.01% or less of Texas' total, with the exception of 2014 when it reached 0.01%. The trend for aggravated assaults appears to be decreasing in recent years, with only two incidents reported in 2019 and 2021, and none in 2022.

When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, a notable relationship emerges with the city's racial composition. The data shows that as the Hispanic population percentage increased from 12% in 2013 to 22% in 2021, there was a general upward trend in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. However, this correlation weakened in 2022 when the Hispanic population decreased to 14% and violent crimes dropped to zero.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continuation of the recent downward trend. Based on the decreasing numbers of violent crimes in recent years, particularly the absence of reported incidents in 2022, it's projected that Baird will likely maintain low levels of violent crime. The forecast suggests an average of 1-2 violent crimes per year, primarily consisting of aggravated assaults, with occasional years potentially seeing no reported violent crimes.

In summary, Baird has experienced relatively low levels of violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most prevalent offense. The city's violent crime rates have fluctuated but generally remained low, with recent years showing a promising downward trend. This pattern, combined with the city's modest population growth, suggests that Baird is maintaining a relatively safe environment for its residents, with violent crime not posing a significant threat to the community's overall well-being.