Robbery trends in the city have remained relatively stable over the years, with some fluctuations. In 2010, there were 8 robberies (0.02% of the state's total). This number remained fairly consistent, with a low of 1 in 2018 (0.00% of the state's total) and a high of 8 in 2011 (0.02% of the state's total). When adjusted for population, the robbery rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 0.07 in 2018 to 0.49 in 2010. The city's contribution to the state's overall robbery rate has remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.02%.

Aggravated assault has shown the most significant variations among violent crimes in the city. In 2010, there were 45 aggravated assaults (0.06% of the state's total). This number peaked at 97 in 2020 (0.11% of the state's total), before declining to 37 in 2022 (0.04% of the state's total). When adjusted for population, the aggravated assault rate per 1,000 residents increased from 2.68 in 2010 to 6.66 in 2020, before decreasing to 2.50 in 2022. This trend indicates that aggravated assault has been the most prevalent and volatile form of violent crime in the city.

There appears to be a strong correlation between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates in the city. As the Hispanic population increased from 82% in 2013 to 86% in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. Additionally, there seems to be an inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 862 per square mile in 2010 to 758 per square mile in 2022, violent crime rates generally increased.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. This prediction is based on the recent downward trend observed from 2020 to 2022, where violent crimes decreased from 106 to 43 incidents. However, given the historical volatility, periodic spikes in certain crime categories, particularly aggravated assaults, may still occur.

In summary, Avenal has experienced significant fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most prevalent and volatile category. The city's contribution to the state's overall crime rates has remained relatively low across all categories. The observed correlations between demographic changes, population density, and crime rates suggest that socio-economic factors play a crucial role in shaping the city's crime landscape. As the city moves forward, addressing these underlying factors may be key to maintaining or reducing violent crime rates in the coming years.