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Violent Crime Trends in Aurora, Ohio: A Suburban Safety Success Story
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Aurora, located in Ohio, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, with numbers ranging from a low of 1 in 2019 to a high of 12 in 2011. Concurrently, the population grew steadily from 15,195 in 2010 to 17,227 in 2022, representing a 13.4% increase.
Murder rates in the city have remained exceptionally low, with only one recorded incident in 2018. This translates to a murder rate of 0.063 per 1,000 people for that year. In all other years, there were no reported murders, effectively maintaining a 0% contribution to the state's murder statistics. This consistently low murder rate, despite population growth, suggests a generally safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with the highest number (4) reported in 2010, and several years (2011, 2013, 2017, 2019, 2020) reporting no incidents. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.263 in 2010 and dropped to 0.058 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics varied, reaching a high of 0.15% in 2010 and dropping to 0.03% in 2022. This overall downward trend in rape incidents, despite population growth, indicates improving safety in this category.
Robbery trends show variability, with a peak of 5 incidents in 2016 (0.318 per 1,000 people) and several years reporting no robberies. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics ranged from 0% to 0.05%. The most recent data from 2022 shows 2 robberies (0.116 per 1,000 people), representing 0.04% of the state's robberies. This suggests a relatively stable and low robbery rate in recent years.
Aggravated assault incidents have shown the most variability among violent crimes. The highest number was recorded in 2011 with 11 incidents (0.716 per 1,000 people), while the lowest was 1 incident in 2019 (0.062 per 1,000 people). The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics peaked at 0.1% in 2011 and was at 0.02% in 2022. The most recent data shows 3 incidents in 2022 (0.174 per 1,000 people), indicating a relatively low and stable rate in recent years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak negative correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 663 per square mile in 2010 to 751 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate showed a general downward trend, albeit with fluctuations. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest a causal relationship.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, we can forecast that violent crime rates in Aurora are likely to remain relatively stable or potentially decrease slightly over the next five years (up to 2029). The total number of violent crimes may fluctuate between 4 to 8 incidents annually, with the per capita rate potentially dropping below 0.4 per 1,000 residents if the population continues to grow at its current rate.
In summary, Aurora has maintained a relatively low and stable violent crime rate over the past decade, despite steady population growth. The most significant changes have been in aggravated assaults, while murder rates have remained exceptionally low. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has generally been minimal across all categories of violent crime. These trends suggest that Aurora has been successful in maintaining public safety, with violent crime rates that are generally lower than what might be expected for a city of its size and growth rate.
