Robbery has been non-existent in the reported years, with zero incidents from 2010 to 2022. This consistent absence of robberies, despite population growth, indicates a very low risk for this type of crime in the community. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents and the percentage of state robberies remained at 0 throughout the period.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of incidents ranged from 1 to 5 per year, with the lowest in 2015 (1 case) and the highest in 2022 (5 cases). The rate per 1,000 residents varied accordingly, from a low of 0.35 in 2015 to a high of 1.48 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases has generally been small but variable, ranging from 0% to 0.04% of the state total, with the highest percentage occurring in 2022. This recent uptick in aggravated assaults warrants attention from local law enforcement.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, coincides with a gradual increase in population density, which rose from 1,028 per square mile in 2010 to 1,077 in 2022. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation with changes in racial composition. The Hispanic population percentage increased from 23% in 2013 to 25% in 2022, while the White population decreased from 71% to 74% over the same period. This demographic shift coincides with the overall increase in violent crimes, though a causal relationship cannot be inferred from this data alone.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend in aggravated assaults if current conditions persist. The model predicts that the number of aggravated assaults could reach 7-8 incidents per year by 2029, assuming population growth and demographic shifts continue along current trajectories. However, given the small numbers involved, even minor changes in community dynamics could significantly impact these predictions.

In summary, Astatula has experienced a nuanced evolution in its violent crime profile over the past decade. While maintaining a commendable record of zero murders and robberies, the community has seen fluctuations in rape incidents and a concerning upward trend in aggravated assaults. These trends, coupled with demographic changes, suggest a need for targeted community policing strategies and preventive measures to address the factors contributing to the increase in aggravated assaults. The town's overall violent crime rate remains relatively low, but the recent uptick underscores the importance of proactive law enforcement and community engagement to maintain the safety and security of Astatula's residents.