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Violent Crime Trends in Assumption, Illinois: A Small Town's Declining Crime Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Assumption, Illinois, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2016 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 4 incidents in 2019 and a low of 0 in 2020. Over this period, the population decreased from 1,388 in 2016 to 1,245 in 2022, a 10.3% decline.
The murder rate in this small city has remained consistently at zero from 2016 to 2022, with no reported cases throughout the period. This stability in the absence of murders is noteworthy, especially considering the population decline. The murder rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state crime for murder have both remained at 0%, indicating a consistently safe environment in this aspect of violent crime.
Similarly, rape incidents have been non-existent in Assumption from 2016 to 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state crime for rape have consistently been 0%. This absence of reported rapes suggests a relatively safe environment for residents in terms of sexual violence, despite the changing population dynamics.
Robbery trends show minimal activity, with only one incident reported in 2019. This single case resulted in a robbery rate of 0.75 per 1,000 people for that year, and represented 0.01% of the state's robberies. In all other years from 2016 to 2022, robbery rates and state percentages remained at 0%. The isolated nature of this incident, rather than indicating a trend, suggests it was an anomaly in an otherwise robbery-free environment.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases fluctuated between 0 and 3 annually from 2016 to 2022. The highest number of aggravated assaults (3) occurred in 2016 and 2019, resulting in rates of 2.16 and 2.25 per 1,000 people, respectively. The percentage of state crime for aggravated assault remained consistently at 0.01% for most years, except for 2020 when it dropped to 0%. The variation in aggravated assault cases, while small in absolute numbers, represents the most dynamic aspect of violent crime in this small community.
When examining correlations, a weak negative relationship appears between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,401 per square mile in 2016 to 1,257 in 2022, there was a slight overall downward trend in violent crime, although with fluctuations. The racial distribution has remained predominantly white (93-96% from 2016 to 2022), with minimal changes in other racial categories, making it difficult to draw meaningful correlations between race and crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates will likely remain low and relatively stable over the next five years (up to 2029). The model suggests an average of 1-2 violent crimes per year, primarily consisting of aggravated assaults, with potential years of zero incidents interspersed.
In conclusion, Assumption demonstrates a pattern of very low violent crime rates across all categories. The most notable trend is in aggravated assaults, which, while fluctuating, remain the primary concern in an otherwise safe environment. The city's small size and stable demographic composition likely contribute to its consistently low crime rates, making it a relatively secure community in terms of violent crime.
