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Violent Crime Trends in Ashland, Ohio: A Decade of Change in a Shrinking City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Ashland, Ohio, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, starting at 15 in 2010 and ending at 23 in 2022, representing a 53.3% increase. However, this increase occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing from 25,528 in 2010 to 23,742 in 2022, a 7% reduction.
Murder rates in the city have remained remarkably low throughout the period. Only two years, 2014 and 2016, saw any murders at all, with one and two cases respectively. This translates to a rate of 0.04 and 0.08 per 1,000 people in those years. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city peaked at 0.38% in 2016 but remained at 0% for most years. These figures suggest that murder is an extremely rare occurrence in the city, with no discernible trend over time.
Rape incidents have shown more variability. The number of cases ranged from a low of 7 in 2017 to a high of 19 in 2015. The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, from 0.28 in 2017 to 0.77 in 2015. The city's contribution to state rape cases fluctuated between 0.19% and 0.7% during this period. There's no clear long-term trend, but the data shows periodic spikes and declines in rape cases.
Robbery rates in the city have remained relatively low but showed some increase towards the end of the period. From 2010 to 2015, there were 3 or fewer robberies per year. However, in 2022, there were 4 robberies, representing a rate of 0.17 per 1,000 people and 0.07% of state robberies. This indicates a slight upward trend in recent years, though the numbers remain small.
Aggravated assault cases have shown the most significant increase among violent crimes. In 2010, there were only 2 cases (0.08 per 1,000 people), representing 0.02% of state cases. By 2022, this had risen to 9 cases (0.38 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.05% of state cases. The peak was in 2017 with 14 cases (0.56 per 1,000 people), representing 0.13% of state cases. This trend suggests a growing concern with aggravated assaults in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the increase in violent crimes and the slight decrease in the white population percentage, which dropped from 95% in 2013 to 93% in 2022. Additionally, the rise in crime rates coincides with an increase in population density, despite the overall population decrease, suggesting a potential link between urban concentration and crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the total number of violent crimes to continue its slight upward trajectory, potentially reaching around 28-30 annual cases by 2029. This prediction is based on the historical trend and assumes current socio-economic conditions persist.
In summary, Ashland has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape. While murder rates remain exceptionally low, there has been a notable increase in aggravated assaults and a recent uptick in robberies. Rape cases have fluctuated without a clear trend. These changes are occurring against a backdrop of population decline and subtle shifts in demographic composition. The city's contribution to state crime rates remains relatively small, but the local increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, warrants attention from city officials and community leaders to ensure the long-term safety and well-being of Ashland's residents.
