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Violent Crime Trends in Asheville: Mountain City Faces Rising Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Asheville, North Carolina, a vibrant city nestled in the Blue Ridge Mountains, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 103.5%, from 432 to 879 incidents. This substantial rise occurred alongside a population growth of 12.2%, from 83,570 to 93,782 residents during the same period.
The murder rate in the city has shown considerable fluctuation over the years. In 2010, there were 2 murders, which increased to 12 in 2022, representing a 500% increase. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.024 in 2010 to 0.128 in 2022, a 433.3% increase. The city's percentage of state murders also increased from 0.79% in 2010 to 2.09% in 2022, indicating that its share of state murders grew faster than its population. This trend suggests a disproportionate increase in murder cases compared to the rest of the state.
Rape incidents in the city have shown an upward trend. In 2013, there were 31 reported rapes, which increased to 61 in 2022, representing a 96.8% increase. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.355 in 2013 to 0.650 in 2022, an 83.1% increase. The city's percentage of state rapes also increased from 2.74% in 2010 to 3.19% in 2022, indicating that it accounts for a growing proportion of rape cases in the state.
Robbery trends in the city have been relatively stable with some fluctuations. In 2010, there were 165 robberies, which decreased slightly to 136 in 2022, a 17.6% decrease. However, when adjusted for population, the robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.974 in 2010 to 1.450 in 2022, a 26.5% decrease. The city's percentage of state robberies increased from 2.22% in 2010 to 2.67% in 2022, suggesting that despite the decrease in raw numbers, the city's share of state robberies has grown.
Aggravated assault cases have seen a significant increase. In 2010, there were 234 cases, which rose to 670 in 2022, representing a 186.3% increase. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people increased from 2.800 in 2010 to 7.144 in 2022, a 155.1% increase. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults rose from 1.74% in 2010 to 2.79% in 2022, indicating that it accounts for an increasingly larger share of these crimes in the state.
There appears to be a strong correlation between the increase in violent crime and population density. As the population density increased from 1,837 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,062 in 2022, violent crime rates also rose. Additionally, there is a notable correlation between rising median rent and increased violent crime. Median rent increased from $866 in 2013 to $1,290 in 2022, a 49% increase, coinciding with the rise in violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), it is estimated that the total number of violent crimes could reach approximately 1,150 incidents if current trends continue. This projection assumes a continued increase in population density and median rent, which have shown strong correlations with violent crime rates.
In summary, Asheville has experienced a significant increase in violent crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The city has seen particularly sharp rises in murder and aggravated assault rates, while robbery rates have decreased slightly but still represent a larger share of state totals. These trends, coupled with increasing population density and rising median rent, paint a complex picture of the city's evolving urban landscape and its challenges in managing public safety.
