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Violent Crime Trends in Ash Grove, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Ash Grove, a city in Missouri, has experienced significant changes in violent crime rates from 2011 to 2022, set against a backdrop of slight population decline. During this period, the total number of violent crimes increased from 2 to 15, representing a substantial 650% increase. Concurrently, the city's population decreased marginally from 2,275 to 2,300, a 1.1% change.
Throughout the analyzed period from 2011 to 2022, Ash Grove has maintained a consistent record of zero murders. This absence of the most severe form of violent crime suggests a relatively safe environment in this aspect. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained at zero, with the city not contributing to the state's murder statistics during this time.
Rape incidents in Ash Grove have been infrequent and sporadic. The city reported one rape in 2015 and another in 2022. In 2015, with a population of 2,295, the rape rate was 0.44 per 1,000 people. In 2022, with a population of 2,300, the rate was similar at 0.43 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state rape crimes was 0.05% in both years. These isolated incidents, while concerning, do not indicate a consistent trend and represent a very small portion of the state's total.
Robbery has been virtually non-existent in Ash Grove throughout the analyzed period. No robberies were reported from 2011 to 2022, maintaining a robbery rate of 0 per 1,000 people and contributing 0% to the state's robbery statistics. This absence of robberies suggests a relatively secure environment for residents and businesses in terms of property-related violent crimes.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant changes among violent crimes in the city. In 2011, there were 2 aggravated assaults, representing a rate of 0.88 per 1,000 people. This number remained relatively stable until 2021 when it jumped to 8 cases (3.5 per 1,000 people), and then further increased to 14 cases in 2022 (6.09 per 1,000 people). The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics rose from 0.01% in 2011 to 0.08% in 2022. This sharp increase in recent years is concerning and warrants attention from local law enforcement and community leaders.
A moderate correlation appears to exist between the increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, and the rise in median rent. From 2013 to 2022, median rent increased from $654 to $715, while violent crimes, especially aggravated assaults, saw a significant uptick. This could suggest a potential link between economic pressures and violent behavior.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029, Ash Grove may see its violent crime rate continue to increase if current trends persist. The number of aggravated assaults could potentially reach 20-25 cases annually, assuming no significant interventions or changes in local conditions.
In summary, Ash Grove has maintained a relatively safe environment in terms of murders and robberies over the past decade. However, the recent sharp increase in aggravated assaults is the most significant change in the city's violent crime landscape. This trend, coupled with the sporadic occurrence of rape incidents, suggests a need for targeted crime prevention strategies and community engagement initiatives to address the rising violent crime rate, particularly focusing on aggravated assaults.
