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Violent Crime Trends in Arnold, Pennsylvania: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Declining Population
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Arnold, Pennsylvania, a small urban area spanning just 0.73 square miles, has experienced significant changes in violent crime rates over the past decade, coinciding with a steady population decline. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of violent crimes increased by 62.1%, from 29 to 47 incidents, while the population decreased by 6.2%, from 5,254 to 4,930 residents.
The murder rate in Arnold has remained relatively low, with only two reported cases in 2012, representing 0.38% of the state's total murders that year. This translates to a rate of 0.39 murders per 1,000 people in 2012. In all other reported years, there were no murders, indicating that homicide is not a persistent issue in this small community.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with the highest reported number being 4 cases in 2010 (0.76 per 1,000 people), representing 0.24% of the state's total. By 2018, there were no reported rape cases, showing a significant improvement in this category of violent crime.
Robbery trends reveal a concerning pattern. In 2010, there were 11 robberies (2.09 per 1,000 people), which increased to 16 in 2013 (3.12 per 1,000 people), representing 0.14% of the state's total. By 2018, robberies decreased to 9 incidents (1.83 per 1,000 people), but still accounted for 0.12% of the state's robberies, indicating a persistent issue relative to the city's size.
Aggravated assault has shown the most dramatic increase. In 2010, there were 14 cases (2.67 per 1,000 people), representing 0.09% of the state's total. By 2017, this number spiked to 58 cases (11.65 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.45% of the state's aggravated assaults. In 2018, while the number decreased to 38 incidents (7.71 per 1,000 people), it still represented 0.29% of the state's total, suggesting a significant ongoing problem.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 7,177 per square mile in 2010 to 6,734 in 2018, violent crime incidents increased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. The percentage of white residents decreased from 71% in 2014 to 62% in 2018, while the percentage of Black residents increased from 19% to 29% during the same period, coinciding with the rise in violent crimes.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Arnold may see a further increase in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults, if current trends continue without intervention. The robbery rate is likely to remain relatively stable, while rape and murder rates are expected to stay low.
In conclusion, Arnold faces significant challenges with violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults and robberies, despite its small size. The inverse relationship between population density and crime rates, along with changing demographics, suggests complex socio-economic factors at play. As the city continues to experience population decline, addressing these crime trends will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.
