Violent Crime Trends in Archer City, Texas: A Decade of Fluctuations and Recent Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
DATA SOURCE
Archer City, Texas, a small city with a population of 1,838 as of 2022, has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 75%, from 4 to 1 incident. During this same period, the population decreased by 4.62%, from 1,927 to 1,838 residents.
Murder rates in the city have remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2022. This statistic translates to a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 people, which has remained stable despite population fluctuations. The percentage of state murders attributable to Archer City has consistently been 0%, indicating that the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics during this time.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variation over time. In 2010 and 2012, there were no reported rapes. However, in 2011, there was 1 reported rape, representing 0.02% of the state's total. The rate then increased to 3 reported rapes in 2019, accounting for 0.03% of the state's total. By 2022, there was 1 reported rape, representing 0.01% of the state's total. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 in 2010 to 0.54 in 2022, indicating a rise in this crime category relative to the population.
Robbery incidents have been consistently reported as zero from 2010 to 2022. This translates to a robbery rate of 0 per 1,000 people throughout the period, regardless of population changes. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics has remained at 0% during this time.
Aggravated assault cases have shown a decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 4 reported cases, representing 0.01% of the state's total. This number fluctuated over the years, with 5 cases in 2011 (0.01% of state total), 3 cases in 2012 and 2019 (0.01% and 0% of state total respectively), and then decreased to 1 case in 2020 and 2021 (0% of state total each year). In 2022, there were no reported aggravated assaults. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.08 in 2010 to 0 in 2022, indicating a significant improvement in this crime category.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a weak negative correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 879 per square mile in 2010 to 838 in 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest a causal relationship.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that the violent crime rate in Archer City will likely remain low or potentially decrease further by 2029. The consistent zero rates for murder and robbery, coupled with the decreasing trend in aggravated assaults, suggest a continuation of these low crime rates. However, the fluctuation in rape incidents introduces some uncertainty into this prediction.
In summary, Archer City has demonstrated a notable improvement in its violent crime statistics over the past decade. The most significant changes include the elimination of aggravated assaults and the maintenance of zero incidents in both murder and robbery categories. While rape incidents have shown some fluctuation, the overall violent crime rate has decreased substantially. These trends, if sustained, position Archer City as a relatively safe small city in Texas with an improving public safety profile.
