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Violent Crime Trends in Aransas Pass: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Aransas Pass, located in Texas, has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 7.14%, from 42 to 45 incidents, while the population grew by 0.63%, from 12,579 to 12,658 residents.
Murder rates in the city have shown variability over time. In 2010, there were 2 murders, representing 0.21% of state murders. This figure remained constant in 2011 and 2012, dropped to zero in 2013, 2014, and 2017, and then increased to 3 in 2020, 2021, and 2022. The murder rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, peaking at 0.24 per 1,000 in 2022, up from 0.16 per 1,000 in 2010. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city has remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.18% to 0.23% in years when murders occurred.
Rape incidents have shown significant fluctuations. In 2010, there were 7 reported rapes (0.12% of state rapes), which increased to 19 in 2011 (0.32% of state rapes). The numbers then dropped dramatically, with several years reporting zero incidents. In 2020, rape cases rose again to 6 (0.06% of state rapes), and further to 7 in 2021 and 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people varied from 0 to 1.52 (in 2011), settling at 0.55 per 1,000 in 2022.
Robbery trends show a general decline over the years. From 12 incidents in 2010 (0.04% of state robberies), the number decreased to 4 in 2022 (0.02% of state robberies). The robbery rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.95 in 2010 to 0.32 in 2022, indicating a significant improvement in this category of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents increased from 21 in 2010 (0.04% of state assaults) to 31 in 2022 (0.04% of state assaults), with fluctuations in between. The peak was 48 incidents in both 2016 and 2017 (0.08% of state assaults). The rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.67 in 2010 to 2.45 in 2022, suggesting an upward trend in this crime category.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 793 people per square mile in 2010 to 798 in 2022, violent crime rates showed a corresponding increase. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population grew from 35% in 2013 to 42% in 2022, violent crime incidents also showed an overall increase.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on historical data and current trends, we can anticipate a slight increase in overall violent crime rates. Specifically, aggravated assaults are projected to continue their upward trend, potentially reaching around 55-60 incidents per year by 2029. Murders are expected to remain relatively stable at 2-3 per year. Rape incidents may fluctuate but are likely to stay within the range of 5-8 per year. Robbery rates are predicted to remain low, possibly decreasing further to 2-3 incidents annually.
In summary, Aransas Pass has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime over the past decade. While some categories like robbery have shown improvement, others such as aggravated assault have worsened. The relationship between demographic changes, particularly in population density and ethnic composition, and crime rates suggests that ongoing community engagement and targeted law enforcement strategies may be necessary to address these trends effectively.
