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Violent Crime Trends in Arab, Alabama: Small City Makes Big Strides in Safety
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Arab, located in Alabama, has experienced notable changes in violent crime rates and population over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 55.56%, from 63 to 28 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 8.24%, from 12,665 to 13,709 residents, indicating a divergence between population growth and crime rates.
Regarding murder trends, the city has maintained an exceptionally low rate. Only one murder was reported in 2011 and another in 2016, with zero murders in all other years from 2011 to 2022. This translates to a murder rate that has fluctuated between 0 and 0.08 per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state murders attributable to the city was 0.41% in 2011 and 0.43% in 2016, the only years with recorded incidents. This suggests that murder is an extremely rare occurrence in the city, even as the population has grown.
Rape cases in the city have shown some fluctuation over the years. The number of reported rapes increased from 3 in 2011 to a peak of 13 in 2014, before decreasing to 6 in 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.24 in 2011 to a high of 1.00 in 2014, then declined to 0.44 in 2022. The city's contribution to state rape cases varied, peaking at 1.05% in 2014 and settling at 0.68% in 2022. This indicates that while rape incidents have increased overall since 2011, they have decreased from their mid-decade peak.
Robbery trends in the city show a general decline. The number of robberies decreased from 6 in 2011 to 3 in 2022, with some fluctuations in between. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.47 in 2011 to 0.22 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies has remained relatively low, ranging from 0.05% to 0.24% over the period. This suggests that robbery has become less prevalent in the city over time, even as the population has grown.
Aggravated assault cases have shown significant variability. The number of incidents decreased from 53 in 2011 to a low of 23 in 2013, then peaked at 55 in 2016 before declining to 19 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, starting at 4.18 in 2011, dropping to 1.74 in 2013, rising to 4.12 in 2016, and finally decreasing to 1.39 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults has fluctuated between 0.17% and 0.52% during this period. This indicates that while aggravated assaults have decreased overall since 2011, there have been significant fluctuations within the decade.
There appears to be a correlation between the city's population density and violent crime rates. As population density increased from 950 per square mile in 2011 to 1,029 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased. This suggests that the city has managed to reduce crime rates even as it became more densely populated.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the decreasing trend observed from 2011 to 2022, we might expect the total number of violent crimes to continue to decline, potentially reaching around 20-25 incidents per year by 2029. However, this projection should be interpreted cautiously, as crime rates can be influenced by various socioeconomic factors and local policies.
In summary, Arab has experienced a notable decrease in violent crime rates over the past decade, despite population growth. The city has maintained very low murder rates, seen fluctuations in rape and aggravated assault cases, and experienced a decline in robberies. These trends, coupled with increasing population density, suggest that the city has been effective in managing crime as it has grown. However, continued vigilance and proactive measures will be crucial to maintain and further improve these positive trends in the coming years.
