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Violent Crime Trends in Apalachicola: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small Florida City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Apalachicola, a city in Florida, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2018, the city experienced fluctuations in total violent crime incidents, ranging from 0 in 2010 to 6 in 2011, while its population grew by approximately 3.6%, from 3,698 to 3,832 residents. During this period, the murder rate remained consistently at zero, a noteworthy statistic given the population growth. This resulted in a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 residents and a 0% contribution to Florida's overall murder statistics throughout the period.
Rape incidents in Apalachicola were sporadic and infrequent. Single cases were reported in 2011 and 2012, each representing 0.04% of the state's total rapes, with rates of approximately 0.28 and 0.29 per 1,000 residents, respectively. In all other years, no rapes were reported. The robbery trend showed a consistent pattern of zero incidents from 2010 to 2018, except for 2016, which recorded 0.0 robberies. This translated to a robbery rate of 0 per 1,000 residents and a 0% contribution to the state's robbery statistics throughout the period.
Aggravated assault emerged as the most prevalent form of violent crime in Apalachicola. The number of incidents varied annually, peaking at 5 cases in 2011 and 2018, and reaching a low of 1 case in 2013 and 2015. The rate per 1,000 residents ranged from approximately 0.29 in 2015 to 1.40 in 2011. Despite being the most common violent crime in the city, Apalachicola's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases remained consistently low, peaking at 0.02% in 2018.
An analysis of correlations revealed a weak positive relationship between population density and violent crime incidents. As the population density increased from 1,921 per square mile in 2010 to 1,990 per square mile in 2018, there was a slight upward trend in violent crime, particularly in aggravated assaults. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest a definitive causal relationship.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it is projected that the violent crime rate in Apalachicola will likely remain low over the next five years, up to 2029. The city may continue to experience sporadic incidents of aggravated assault, potentially averaging 3-4 cases per year. However, given the historical data, murders, rapes, and robberies are expected to remain rare or non-existent.
In summary, Apalachicola has maintained a remarkably low violent crime rate despite modest population growth. The absence of murders and robberies, coupled with infrequent occurrences of rape and relatively low levels of aggravated assault, paints a picture of a generally safe community. The city's minimal contribution to Florida's overall violent crime statistics further underscores its status as a low-crime area. While vigilance should be maintained, particularly regarding aggravated assaults, the overall violent crime trend in Apalachicola appears stable and notably low.
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