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Violent Crime Trends in Andrews, Texas: A Decade of Fluctuations Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Andrews, Texas, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, peaking at 94 incidents in 2013 and reaching a low of 50 in 2017. Over this period, violent crime decreased by 32.65%, from 49 incidents in 2010 to 65 in 2022. Concurrently, the population grew significantly by 29.79%, from 12,912 in 2010 to 16,758 in 2022, creating a complex backdrop for crime analysis.
Murder rates in the city have remained remarkably low, with only two recorded incidents over the 13-year period - one in 2014 and another in 2022. This translates to an extremely low rate of 0.06 murders per 1,000 people in 2022. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city has been negligible, with only 0.11% in 2014 and 0.06% in 2022. These figures suggest that murder is an exceptionally rare occurrence in the community, despite population growth.
Rape incidents have shown considerable variation over the years. The highest number was recorded in 2012 with 18 cases, while the lowest was 4 cases in 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.70 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2022, a substantial 65.71% reduction. The city's contribution to state rape cases has also decreased from 0.15% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, indicating a positive trend in reducing sexual violence relative to state figures.
Robbery rates in the city have remained consistently low. The highest number of robberies (10) occurred in 2015, but by 2022, there were no reported robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.65 in 2015 and dropped to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery cases has been minimal, never exceeding 0.04% (in 2015), and reaching 0% in 2022. This trend suggests effective measures in preventing robberies within the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents peaked at 71 in 2012 but decreased to 60 by 2022. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 3.10 in 2010 to 3.58 in 2022, a 15.48% increase. However, the city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases decreased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022, indicating that while local incidents increased slightly, they did not outpace state-level growth.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density increased from 1,857 per square mile in 2010 to 2,411 in 2022, violent crime rates initially rose but then stabilized and slightly decreased. This suggests that the city has managed to maintain relatively stable crime rates despite increasing urbanization.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight increase in overall violent crimes, potentially reaching around 70-75 incidents annually. This projection is based on the historical data pattern and assumes continued population growth at a similar rate.
In summary, Andrews has demonstrated resilience in managing violent crime despite significant population growth. The most notable improvements have been in rape and robbery rates, while aggravated assault remains the primary concern. The city's contribution to state-level crime statistics has remained consistently low across all categories, indicating effective local law enforcement and community safety measures. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
