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Violent Crime Trends in Allentown: Industrial City's Decade of Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Allentown, Pennsylvania, a city with a rich industrial history, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of violent crimes in Allentown decreased by 35.7%, from 732 to 471 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 2.7%, from 118,240 to 121,441 residents, suggesting an improvement in overall public safety relative to population growth.
The murder rate in Allentown has fluctuated over the years, with some concerning spikes. In 2010, there were 9 murders, which decreased to 7 in 2019. However, the city experienced a peak of 16 murders in 2017, representing a 77.8% increase from 2010. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 0.076 in 2010 to 0.058 in 2019. Notably, the city's share of state murders increased dramatically from 1.81% in 2010 to 10.61% in 2019, indicating that while Allentown's murder rate improved relative to its population, it worsened compared to the state average.
Rape incidents in the city showed a slight decrease, from 67 in 2010 to 64 in 2019. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.57 in 2010 to 0.53 in 2019. The city's percentage of state rape cases increased from 4.06% to 16.58% over this period, suggesting that while Allentown made modest improvements, it still contributed a larger share to the state's total rape cases by 2019.
Robbery trends in Allentown showed a significant improvement. The number of robberies decreased from 460 in 2010 to 170 in 2019, a 63% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people also dropped from 3.89 to 1.40 during this period. However, the city's share of state robberies increased from 3.56% to 18.58%, indicating that while Allentown made substantial progress, it still accounted for a larger portion of the state's robberies by 2019.
Aggravated assaults in the city increased from 196 in 2010 to 230 in 2019, a 17.3% rise. The rate per 1,000 people also increased from 1.66 to 1.89 during this period. The city's share of state aggravated assaults rose from 1.33% to 7.61%, suggesting that Allentown experienced a disproportionate increase in this crime category compared to the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density increased from 6,731 per square mile in 2010 to 6,914 per square mile in 2019, the overall violent crime rate decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the rise in median rent and the decrease in violent crime. Median rent increased from $890 in 2013 to $1,057 in 2019, coinciding with the overall reduction in violent crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (until 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall violent crime rates. However, aggravated assaults may continue to rise if current trends persist. The murder rate is expected to stabilize, while robberies are likely to continue their downward trend.
In summary, Allentown has made significant strides in reducing violent crime, particularly in robberies, despite population growth. However, the city's increasing share of state crime statistics in several categories suggests that it still faces challenges relative to other parts of Pennsylvania. The correlation between rising population density, increasing median rent, and decreasing crime rates points to potential socioeconomic factors influencing public safety. As Allentown continues to evolve, maintaining focus on addressing aggravated assaults and sustaining the progress made in other crime categories will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
