Robbery trends in the urban area have shown a general decline over the years. In 2010, there were 82 robberies (0.16% of the state's total), which peaked at 89 in both 2017 and 2019 (0.17% and 0.19% of the state's total, respectively). By 2022, this number had decreased to 73 (0.17% of the state's total). The robbery rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 0.99 in 2010 to 0.91 in 2022, suggesting a marginal improvement in public safety regarding this crime category.

Aggravated assault incidents in the city have fluctuated but show an overall decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 92 cases (0.12% of the state's total), which decreased to 59 cases in 2019 (0.07% of the state's total) before rising again to 75 cases in 2022 (0.07% of the state's total). The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.11 in 2010 to 0.93 in 2022, indicating a slight improvement in this area of violent crime.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 10,903 per square mile in 2010 to 10,518 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate showed a general downward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between median rent and violent crime rates. As median rent increased from $1,224 in 2013 to $1,703 in 2022, there was a slight uptick in certain violent crime categories, particularly rape.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of current patterns. The murder rate is expected to remain very low, possibly fluctuating between 0 and 2 cases per year. Rape incidents may continue to show a slight upward trend, potentially reaching 15-18 cases annually by 2029. Robbery rates are projected to stabilize around 70-75 cases per year. Aggravated assault cases are expected to fluctuate between 70-80 annually.

In summary, Alhambra has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime trends over the past decade. While some categories like murder and robbery have shown improvement, others like rape have seen concerning increases. The city's changing demographics and economic factors appear to have some influence on these trends. As Alhambra moves forward, addressing the rising rape incidents and maintaining the positive trends in other violent crime categories will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.