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Violent Crime Trends in Aberdeen: Population Growth Amidst Fluctuating Crime Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Aberdeen, located in North Carolina, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, alongside significant population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 20 to 28, representing a 40% increase. During the same period, the population grew from 8,442 to 10,368, a 22.8% increase.
Murder rates in the city have remained relatively low, with most years reporting zero murders. The only exceptions were 2013 and 2021, each recording one murder. This translates to a murder rate of 0.32 per 1,000 people in 2013 and 0.10 per 1,000 in 2021. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city peaked at 1.17% in 2013 and stood at 0.16% in 2021. These figures suggest that while murders are infrequent, they can have a significant impact on the city's crime statistics when they occur.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with available data showing 2 cases in 2010, peaking at 4 cases in 2021, and decreasing to 2 cases in 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people was 0.24 in 2010, 0.41 in 2021, and 0.19 in 2022. The city's contribution to state rape cases has varied, reaching 0.25% in 2012 and dropping to 0.10% in 2022. This indicates a slight overall decrease in the city's share of state rape cases, despite population growth.
Robbery trends show a general decline from 13 cases in 2010 to 6 cases in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.54 in 2010 to 0.58 in 2022. The city's percentage of state robberies fluctuated, peaking at 0.20% in 2016 and settling at 0.12% in 2022. This downward trend in robberies is particularly positive given the population increase during this period.
Aggravated assault cases have shown more volatility, with 5 cases in 2010, peaking at 31 cases in 2019, and then decreasing to 20 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people was 0.59 in 2010, 3.22 in 2019, and 1.93 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults increased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022. This indicates that while there has been an overall increase in aggravated assaults, recent years have shown some improvement.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 808 per square mile in 2010 to 993 in 2022, violent crime rates generally trended upward, although with significant year-to-year variations. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. The percentage of Black residents increased from 18% in 2013 to 25% in 2018, coinciding with some increases in violent crime, before decreasing to 16% in 2022 as crime rates stabilized.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. This projection is based on the recent downward trend in robberies and the stabilization of aggravated assault cases. However, the city should remain vigilant about potential spikes in specific crime categories, as historical data shows occasional sharp increases.
In summary, Aberdeen has faced challenges with violent crime amid significant population growth. While some categories like robbery have shown improvement, others like aggravated assault have experienced fluctuations. The city's contribution to state crime rates has generally remained low, but with notable variations. Moving forward, continued focus on crime prevention strategies, particularly for aggravated assaults, will be crucial in maintaining public safety as the community continues to grow and evolve.
