Robbery trends in Warrenton have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 2 robberies (0.03% of state total), decreasing to 0 in 2016, and then rising again to 2 in 2022 (0.04% of state total). When adjusted for population, the robbery rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.41 in 2010 to 0.55 in 2022, indicating a slight upward trend despite the population decline.

Aggravated assault has shown the most significant increase among violent crimes in Warrenton. In 2010, there were 2 cases (0.01% of state total), which rose to 15 cases in 2022 (0.06% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.41 in 2010 to 4.12 in 2022, a tenfold increase. This sharp rise suggests a growing concern for public safety in the city.

The increase in violent crime appears to correlate with changes in racial demographics. The percentage of Black residents in Warrenton increased slightly from 60% in 2016 to 64% in 2022, while the White population decreased from 29% to 22% over the same period. Additionally, the Hispanic population grew from 8% to 11%. These demographic shifts coincided with the rise in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's projected that by 2029, Warrenton may see a further increase in violent crimes. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach 30-35 annually if current trends continue, with aggravated assaults likely comprising the majority of these incidents.

In summary, Warrenton has experienced a significant increase in violent crime, particularly in aggravated assaults and more recently in murders, despite a declining population. This trend, coupled with demographic changes, presents a complex challenge for local law enforcement and community leaders. The disproportionate increase in the city's share of state-wide violent crimes underscores the need for targeted interventions and community-based solutions to address these rising crime rates.