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Violent Crime Surge in Rome, NY: A City Grappling with Historical Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Rome, located in New York state, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of gradual population decline. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 92.5%, from 40 to 77 incidents, while the population decreased by 5.5%, from 33,896 to 32,031 residents.
Murder rates in the city have shown significant variability. The number of murders per year ranged from 0 to 4, with the highest count occurring in 2013. When examining murders per 1,000 people, the rate peaked at 0.12 in 2013 and was zero in several years, including 2022. The city's contribution to state murder statistics fluctuated dramatically, from 0% in multiple years to a high of 0.76% in 2013. This volatility suggests that while murder is not a consistent problem, individual incidents can have a significant impact on the city's crime statistics due to its relatively small population.
Rape incidents in the city have shown a general upward trend, increasing from 5 cases in 2010 to 11 in 2022, representing a 120% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.15 in 2010 to 0.34 in 2022. The city's share of state rape cases has fluctuated but generally increased, from 0.27% in 2010 to 0.32% in 2022. This trend indicates that sexual violence has become a growing concern in the community, outpacing population changes.
Robbery trends have been more stable, with 8 incidents in 2010 increasing to 18 in 2022, a 125% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.24 in 2010 to 0.56 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has grown from 0.03% to 0.09% over this period. This suggests that while robberies have increased, they remain a relatively small portion of the state's total.
Aggravated assault has seen the most dramatic increase among violent crimes. Incidents rose from 26 in 2010 to 48 in 2022, an 84.6% increase. The rate per 1,000 people climbed from 0.77 in 2010 to 1.50 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assaults grew significantly, from 0.07% to 0.10%. This trend indicates that aggravated assault has become a more prevalent issue in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 452 per square mile in 2010 to 427 in 2022, violent crime incidents increased. Additionally, there is a noticeable correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased slightly from 85% in 2013 to 83% in 2022, and the percentage of residents identifying as two or more races increased from 2% to 4%, violent crime rates rose.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it is forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), violent crime in the city may increase by approximately 30-40% from 2022 levels, potentially reaching 100-110 incidents annually. Aggravated assaults are likely to continue to be the most significant contributor to this increase.
In summary, Rome has faced a concerning upward trend in violent crime, particularly in aggravated assaults and rapes, despite a declining population. The disproportionate increase in crime rates compared to population changes suggests underlying socio-economic factors may be influencing these trends. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has generally increased across all categories, indicating that local law enforcement and community leaders may need to implement targeted strategies to address these growing crime rates and reverse the trend in the coming years.
