Robbery trends in Overland Park show a concerning upward trajectory. The number of robberies increased from 36 in 2010 to 43 in 2022, a 19.4% rise. The robbery rate per 1,000 people slightly increased from 0.21 to 0.22. More alarmingly, the city's percentage of state robberies rose significantly from 2.46% to 5.94% over this period. This substantial increase in the city's contribution to state robbery statistics suggests that Overland Park is experiencing a disproportionate growth in this type of crime compared to other areas in Kansas.

Aggravated assault cases in the city have seen a dramatic increase. In 2010, there were 213 reported cases, which rose to 333 in 2022, representing a 56.3% increase. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people grew from 1.22 to 1.68. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults also increased from 3.45% to 4.39%. This trend indicates that aggravated assault has become a more prevalent issue in Overland Park, outpacing both population growth and state-wide trends.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in violent crimes and population density. As the population density increased from 2,311 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,628 in 2022, violent crimes rose correspondingly. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the rise in median rent, which increased from $974 in 2013 to $1,371 in 2022, and the increase in violent crimes. This suggests that economic pressures may be contributing to the rise in crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Overland Park could see its total violent crimes increase to approximately 520 incidents annually if current trends continue. This projection is based on the observed growth rate and assumes no significant changes in socio-economic factors or law enforcement strategies.

In summary, Overland Park has experienced a concerning rise in violent crimes over the past decade, with aggravated assaults and robberies showing the most significant increases. The city's growing contribution to state crime statistics, particularly in murders and robberies, suggests a need for targeted intervention strategies. The correlation between rising population density, increasing rents, and crime rates points to potential socio-economic factors influencing criminal activity. As Overland Park continues to grow, addressing these trends will be crucial for maintaining the city's safety and quality of life for its residents.