Robbery rates have remained relatively stable, with 3 incidents in 2010 and 4 in 2022. However, due to the declining population, the robbery rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.265 in 2010 to 0.387 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies grew from 0.01% to 0.02% over this period, suggesting a slight increase in the city's contribution to state robbery statistics.

Aggravated assault has seen the most dramatic increase among violent crimes. In 2010, there were 9 reported cases, which surged to 50 in 2022, marking a 455.56% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.794 in 2010 to 4.842 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases increased from 0.02% to 0.1% during this time, indicating a significant local problem.

There appears to be a strong correlation between the increase in violent crime and the decrease in population density. As the population density dropped from 514 per square mile in 2010 to 468 in 2022, violent crime rates increased. This could suggest that the remaining population is more vulnerable or that reduced social cohesion has impacted crime rates.

Additionally, there is a notable correlation between the slight increase in racial diversity and the rise in violent crime. The percentage of white residents decreased from 94% in 2013 to 91% in 2022, while the Hispanic population grew from 0% to 3%, and those identifying as two or more races increased from 1% to 3%. This demographic shift coincides with the increase in violent crime, though causation cannot be inferred from correlation alone.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that violent crime in Oneida may continue to increase over the next five years (up to 2029). The aggravated assault rate is likely to see the most significant growth, potentially reaching around 70-80 incidents per year. Rape cases may stabilize around 10-12 per year, while robbery rates might increase slightly to 5-6 annual incidents. Murder rates are likely to remain sporadic but could average 1-2 per year.

In summary, Oneida has experienced a concerning rise in violent crime, particularly in aggravated assaults and rapes, despite a declining population. The disproportionate increase in crime rates relative to the state averages suggests localized factors are driving this trend. The correlation with changing demographics and decreasing population density points to potential socio-economic factors influencing crime rates. As the city faces these challenges, targeted interventions and community-based strategies may be necessary to address the rising crime rates and improve public safety in the coming years.