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Violent Crime Surge in New Kensington: Industrial City Faces Rising Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
New Kensington, Pennsylvania, a small urban area of 4.26 square miles, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of violent crimes increased by 22.6%, from 53 to 65 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 6.8%, from 13,371 to 12,467 residents, indicating a disproportionate rise in violent crime relative to population changes.
Murder rates in the city have shown volatility over the years. In 2010, there was 1 murder, representing 0.2% of state murders. This figure remained constant in 2011 but dropped to zero in 2012 and 2013. A spike occurred in 2014 and 2015 with 2 murders each year, accounting for 0.44% and 0.43% of state murders respectively. By 2019, the number returned to 1, comprising 1.52% of state murders. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.075 in 2010 to 0.080 in 2019, indicating a slight upward trend in the murder rate relative to the declining population.
Rape incidents have fluctuated significantly. In 2010, there were 12 reported rapes, representing 0.73% of state rapes. This number decreased to 8 by 2012 (0.52% of state rapes) and further to 1 in 2014 (0.05% of state rapes). However, by 2019, the number rose again to 8, accounting for 2.07% of state rapes. The rape rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.897 in 2010 to 0.642 in 2019, showing a decrease in the rate despite the recent uptick in incidents.
Robbery trends show a concerning increase. In 2010, there were 13 robberies, representing 0.1% of state robberies. This number rose to 36 in 2018, accounting for 0.47% of state robberies, before decreasing slightly to 19 in 2019 (2.08% of state robberies). The robbery rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.972 in 2010 to 1.524 in 2019, indicating a significant rise in robberies relative to the population.
Aggravated assault incidents have shown an overall increase. In 2010, there were 27 aggravated assaults, representing 0.18% of state assaults. This number fluctuated over the years but reached 37 in 2019, accounting for 1.22% of state assaults. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 residents increased from 2.019 in 2010 to 2.968 in 2019, showing a substantial rise in the assault rate relative to the declining population.
A strong correlation exists between the increase in violent crime rates and the decrease in population density. As the population density declined from 3,385 per square mile in 2010 to 3,156 per square mile in 2019, violent crime rates increased. This suggests that the shrinking population may be linked to higher crime rates, possibly due to reduced community cohesion or economic factors.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued increase in violent crime rates if current trends persist. The model suggests that by 2029, the city may experience around 80-85 violent crimes annually, representing a potential increase of 23-31% from 2019 levels.
In conclusion, New Kensington faces significant challenges with rising violent crime rates amidst a declining population. The disproportionate increase in violent crimes, particularly robberies and aggravated assaults, coupled with the population decrease, suggests a need for targeted interventions to address these trends and improve public safety in the coming years.
