Robbery occurrences in the city have been infrequent and inconsistent. The highest number of robberies reported was 4 in both 2013 and 2014, with several years recording zero incidents. The rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.48 (in 2013 and 2014). The city's contribution to state robbery statistics remained minimal, peaking at 0.02% in 2014. These low numbers indicate that robbery is not a prevalent issue in the community.

Aggravated assault has been the most common violent crime in the city. The number of incidents increased from 4 in 2010 to 18 in 2022, with a peak of 23 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.48 in 2010 to 1.86 in 2022, with the highest rate of 2.51 per 1,000 in 2020. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults has fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.03% over the years. This trend suggests a growing concern that may require targeted intervention strategies.

A strong correlation exists between the increase in violent crimes and population growth. As the population density increased from 527 people per square mile in 2010 to 617 in 2022, the total number of violent crimes also rose. Additionally, there appears to be a relationship between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. The percentage of white residents decreased from 69% in 2015 to 68% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 25% to 27% during the same period. This demographic shift coincided with the overall increase in violent crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is estimated that the total number of violent crimes could reach approximately 40 incidents per year if current trends continue. This projection assumes a continued population growth rate similar to recent years and no significant changes in socioeconomic factors or law enforcement strategies.

In summary, Marble Falls has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults and, more recently, murders. While the overall crime rate remains relatively low for a city of its size, the upward trend warrants attention from local authorities and community leaders. The correlation between population growth, changing demographics, and crime rates suggests a need for proactive measures to address potential social and economic factors contributing to this trend. As the city continues to grow, implementing targeted crime prevention strategies and community engagement initiatives will be crucial in maintaining public safety and quality of life for its residents.