Robbery trends have been more variable. The number of robberies decreased from 21 in 2010 to 19 in 2022, a 9.5% decrease. The robbery rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 0.338 in 2010 to 0.283 in 2022. However, the city's share of state robberies fluctuated, peaking at 27.97% in 2011 before decreasing to 8.19% in 2022. This suggests that while robbery remains a concern, its relative impact on the city's crime rate has diminished over time.

Aggravated assault has seen the most significant increase among violent crimes. The number of aggravated assaults rose from 93 in 2010 to 231 in 2022, a 148.4% increase. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.496 in 2010 to 3.443 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults decreased slightly from 11.11% in 2010 to 9.75% in 2022, indicating that this increase is part of a broader trend across the state.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in violent crime and population density. As the population density increased from 2,690 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,902 in 2022, violent crime rates also rose. Additionally, there is a notable correlation between the slight decrease in the white population percentage (from 87% in 2013 to 83% in 2022) and the increase in violent crime, though this relationship requires further investigation to determine causality.

Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's projected that by 2029, Great Falls may see its violent crime rate continue to increase, potentially reaching around 400 incidents per year if current trends persist. However, this projection should be viewed cautiously, as various factors can influence crime rates.

In summary, Great Falls has experienced a significant increase in violent crime over the past decade, primarily driven by rises in aggravated assault and rape cases. While murder and robbery rates have fluctuated, they have not shown the same level of increase. The correlation between population density and crime rates suggests that as the city continues to grow, addressing violent crime will remain a critical challenge for local authorities and community members alike.