Robbery trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 4 robberies, which increased to 7 in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.15 in 2010 to 0.30 in 2022. However, the city's share of state robberies has remained relatively stable, moving from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022. This suggests that while robbery has increased locally, it hasn't grown disproportionately compared to state levels.

Aggravated assault has seen the most significant increase among violent crimes. In 2010, there were 37 cases, which rose to 92 in 2022. This translates to an increase from 1.41 to 3.89 cases per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases also grew from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022. This substantial rise in aggravated assaults is a major driver of the overall increase in violent crime in the city.

There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crime and changes in racial demographics. As the Hispanic population increased from 64% in 2013 to 74% in 2022, violent crime rates also rose. Simultaneously, the white population decreased from 19% to 13% during the same period. This demographic shift coincides with the rise in violent crime, though it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, total violent crimes could reach approximately 150 incidents annually if current trends continue. This projection assumes a continued increase in line with the observed pattern from 2010 to 2022.

In summary, Corcoran has faced a significant uptick in violent crime, particularly in aggravated assaults and murders, despite a declining population. The city's contribution to state crime percentages has increased across all categories of violent crime. These trends, coupled with demographic changes, present complex challenges for law enforcement and community leaders in addressing public safety concerns in the coming years.