Robbery trends in Chicago Heights have shown improvement. The number of robberies decreased from 115 in 2012 to 96 in 2022, a 16.5% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents dropped by 9.9%, from 3.687 in 2012 to 3.323 in 2022. However, the city's contribution to the state's total robberies increased slightly from 0.65% in 2012 to 0.89% in 2022.

Aggravated assault cases have seen a dramatic increase in Chicago Heights. Reported cases rose from 108 in 2012 to 381 in 2022, a 252.8% increase. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 residents surged by 280.9%, from 3.463 in 2012 to 13.189 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults jumped from 0.44% in 2012 to 3% in 2022.

There appears to be a correlation between the rise in violent crime and changes in the city's racial demographics. As the Black and Hispanic populations have remained relatively stable at around 38-39% each in recent years, the white population has decreased from 23% in 2013 to 21% in 2022. This shift coincides with the overall increase in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults.

Predictive models based on these trends project that by 2029, Chicago Heights may see its violent crime rate continue to increase, potentially reaching around 650-700 incidents annually if current trends persist. Aggravated assaults are likely to remain the primary driver of this increase, potentially accounting for over 70% of all violent crimes in the city.

In summary, Chicago Heights has experienced a complex evolution of its violent crime landscape over the past decade. While robbery and rape have shown improvement, the dramatic rise in aggravated assaults and the fluctuating but overall increasing murder rate present significant challenges for the community. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts and population decline, suggest a need for targeted interventions and community-based strategies to address the root causes of violent crime in the city.