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Violent Crime Surge in Butler, Missouri: A Decade of Demographic Shifts and Safety Concerns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Butler, located in Missouri, has experienced significant fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, coupled with modest population changes. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 4 to 58, representing a substantial 1350% increase. During this same period, the population grew slightly from 4,513 to 4,682, a 3.74% increase.
Murder rates in the city have remained relatively low, with only three reported cases over the 13-year period. In 2010, there were 2 murders, representing 0.59% of the state's total. Another murder occurred in 2015, accounting for 0.24% of the state's murders that year. In 2019, one more murder was reported, making up 0.22% of the state's total. The murder rate per 1,000 people fluctuated from 0.44 in 2010 to 0.22 in 2015, and 0.23 in 2019. These figures suggest that while murder remains infrequent, its occurrence has a significant impact on the city's crime statistics due to the small population.
Rape incidents have shown an upward trend. In 2013, there were 2 reported cases (0.11% of state total), increasing to 5 cases in 2022 (0.24% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.44 in 2013 to 1.07 in 2022. This increase in both absolute numbers and as a percentage of state totals indicates a growing concern for the community.
Robbery rates have remained relatively low and inconsistent. The city experienced no robberies in most years, with occasional incidents in 2011 (2 cases, 0.03% of state total), 2015 (1 case, 0.02% of state total), and 2021 (1 case, 0.03% of state total). The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.44 in 2011 but has since remained minimal.
Aggravated assault has seen the most significant increase among violent crimes. In 2010, there were 2 cases (0.01% of state total), which rose dramatically to 53 cases in 2022 (0.30% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.44 in 2010 to 11.32 in 2022. This substantial rise in aggravated assaults has been the primary driver of the overall increase in violent crime in the city.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crime and subtle changes in racial demographics. The white population decreased from 96% in 2013 to 90% in 2022, while the black population increased from 3% to 5% during the same period. This shift coincides with the rise in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued increase in overall violent crime rates if current trends persist. Aggravated assaults are expected to be the primary contributor to this increase, potentially reaching around 80-90 cases per year by 2029. Rape incidents may stabilize around 5-7 cases annually, while robbery and murder rates are likely to remain low but unpredictable due to their infrequent occurrence.
In summary, Butler has experienced a significant rise in violent crime over the past decade, primarily driven by an increase in aggravated assaults. While murder and robbery rates remain relatively low, the uptick in rape cases and the dramatic rise in aggravated assaults pose growing concerns for the community. These trends, coupled with subtle demographic shifts, suggest a changing landscape of public safety in the city that warrants attention from local law enforcement and community leaders.
