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Violent Crime Surge in Belgrade, Montana: A Decade of Disproportionate Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Belgrade, Montana, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade, alongside substantial population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 24 to 64, representing a 166.67% increase. During the same period, the population grew from 9,661 to 14,516, a 50.25% increase. This disparity between crime and population growth rates suggests a complex dynamic in the city's safety profile.
Murder trends in the city have been sporadic and relatively low. The city reported no murders in most years, with exceptions in 2018 and 2020, when one and two murders were recorded respectively. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2020 at 0.15, corresponding to 8.33% of the state's murders that year. Despite these isolated incidents, the overall murder rate remains low, averaging 0.02 per 1,000 people over the 13-year period.
Rape cases have shown fluctuation but with an overall increasing trend. The number of reported rapes rose from 4 in 2010 to 9 in 2022, peaking at 12 in 2021. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.41 in 2010 to 0.62 in 2022, with a high of 0.86 in 2021. The city's share of state rape cases varied, ranging from 1.14% to 4.3%, indicating its changing contribution to statewide statistics.
Robbery incidents have remained consistently low throughout the period. The city reported between 0 and 5 robberies per year, with five incidents in 2017 being the highest. The robbery rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.45 (in 2017) and was often zero. The city's contribution to state robbery cases was minimal, peaking at 2.26% in 2017 but frequently at 0% or below 1%.
Aggravated assault cases have seen the most significant increase among violent crimes. The number of cases rose from 19 in 2010 to 55 in 2022, a 189.47% increase. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.97 in 2010 to 3.79 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assault cases fluctuated between 0.7% and 2.32%, ending at its highest point in 2022.
There appears to be a strong correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,240 per square mile in 2010 to 3,365 in 2022, violent crime rates also rose. This suggests that the increasing urbanization of the area may be contributing to higher crime rates.
The racial composition of the city has remained predominantly white throughout the period, with the white population consistently above 90%. However, there has been a slight decrease in the white population percentage from 95% in 2019 to 92% in 2022, coinciding with an increase in violent crimes. This could indicate a potential relationship between changing demographics and crime rates, though more data would be needed to establish a definitive correlation.
Applying predictive models based on the current trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), violent crimes in Belgrade could reach approximately 90-100 incidents per year if current trends continue. This projection assumes a continuation of the rapid population growth and the increasing trend in aggravated assaults, which have been the primary drivers of the overall violent crime increase.
In summary, Belgrade has experienced a significant increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, that has outpaced its substantial population growth. While murder and robbery rates remain relatively low, the rise in rapes and especially aggravated assaults presents a growing challenge for the community. The correlation between increasing population density and crime rates suggests that managing urban growth and its associated challenges will be crucial for maintaining public safety in the coming years.
