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Violent Crime Decline in St. Augustine Beach: A Decade of Safety Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
St. Augustine Beach, Florida, a small coastal city with a population of 7,984 as of 2022, has experienced notable changes in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city saw significant fluctuations in total violent crimes, with a peak of 22 incidents in 2014 and a low of 2 incidents in 2022, marking a substantial 90.9% decrease. This trend occurred alongside a 9.7% population growth, from 7,280 in 2010 to 7,984 in 2022. The city has maintained an exemplary record regarding murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, with zero reported cases from 2010 to 2022. This consistent absence of such severe crimes is particularly noteworthy given the population increase during this period. The rate remained at 0 cases per 1,000 residents, representing 0% of the state's total for this crime category across all years. Rape incidents in St. Augustine Beach have been infrequent but showed some variation. The highest number of reported rapes was 3 in 2014, equating to 0.39 incidents per 1,000 residents and representing 0.08% of the state's total that year. However, most years, including 2022, reported zero incidents. The sporadic nature of these occurrences makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but it's evident that rape remains a rare crime in the community.
Robbery trends in the city have also been relatively low and inconsistent. The peak was in 2012 with 3 incidents (0.41 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.02% of the state's total. By 2022, robberies had decreased to zero incidents. This decline, despite population growth, suggests an improvement in public safety regarding this particular crime category. Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in St. Augustine Beach. The highest number of aggravated assaults was recorded in 2014 with 19 incidents (2.46 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.06% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had decreased to 2 incidents (0.25 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.02% of the state's total. This significant reduction indicates a positive trend in public safety, especially considering the growing population. A correlation appears to exist between population density and violent crime rates in the city. As population density increased from 3,420 per square mile in 2010 to 3,750 per square mile in 2022, violent crime rates generally decreased, with some fluctuations. This suggests that the city has managed to maintain and improve public safety despite becoming more densely populated. Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continuation of the overall decreasing trend in violent crimes. Based on the significant drop from 18 violent crimes in 2018 to 2 in 2022, we might expect the annual violent crime incidents to remain in the single digits, potentially averaging 3-5 incidents per year through 2029. However, this prediction assumes consistent law enforcement efforts and stable socio-economic conditions. In summary, St. Augustine Beach has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction over the past decade, despite population growth. The absence of murders, low rates of rape and robbery, and significant decrease in aggravated assaults paint a picture of a relatively safe community. The city's ability to maintain low crime rates while experiencing population growth and increased density is particularly noteworthy and suggests effective law enforcement and community safety measures.
