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Violent Crime Decline in Pinetop-Lakeside: A Demographic Shift
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Pinetop-Lakeside, a town in Arizona, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 60.71%, from 56 to 22 incidents. During this same period, the population declined by 20.94%, from 6,052 to 4,785 residents.
Murder rates in the city have remained exceptionally low, with only two incidents reported over the 13-year period - one in 2010 and another in 2018. This translates to an average of 0.03 murders per 1,000 people annually. The percentage of state murders attributable to the city fluctuated between 0% and 0.4%, with the highest contribution in 2010 at 0.4% and 2018 at 0.35%. These figures suggest that murder is an infrequent occurrence in the community, with minimal impact on statewide statistics.
Rape incidents have shown more variability. The city reported no rapes in several years (2010, 2012, 2016, 2018) but saw a peak of 5 cases in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 0.95, with the highest in 2020. The city's contribution to state rape statistics varied widely, from 0% in some years to a high of 0.3% in 2021. This volatility indicates that while rape is not a persistent problem, it does occur sporadically and warrants attention.
Robbery trends have shown a general decline. In 2010, there were 7 robberies (1.16 per 1,000 people), which decreased to 2 in 2022 (0.42 per 1,000 people). The city's share of state robberies has fluctuated but remained low, peaking at 0.22% in 2021. This downward trend in robberies suggests improving safety conditions in this aspect of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. However, it has shown a significant decrease from 48 cases in 2010 (7.93 per 1,000 people) to 18 in 2022 (3.76 per 1,000 people), a 62.5% reduction. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.41% in 2010 and dropping to 0.11% in 2022. This substantial decrease indicates a positive trend in community safety.
A notable correlation exists between the decline in violent crime and the decrease in population density. As the population density fell from 542 per square mile in 2010 to 429 in 2022, violent crime rates also dropped. Additionally, there appears to be a relationship between the racial composition and crime rates. As the white population percentage increased slightly from 74% in 2013 to 76% in 2022, violent crime rates generally decreased.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall violent crime rates. Specifically, we project that by 2029, the total number of violent crimes could decrease to approximately 15-18 incidents per year, assuming current trends and demographic shifts persist.
In summary, Pinetop-Lakeside has demonstrated a significant improvement in its violent crime situation over the past decade. The substantial decreases in robberies and aggravated assaults, coupled with consistently low murder rates, paint a picture of a community becoming safer. While rape incidents have shown some volatility, they remain relatively low. The correlation between declining population density and reduced crime rates suggests that demographic changes may be playing a role in the improved safety landscape of the town.
