Violent Crime Decline in Kill Devil Hills: A Decade of Improvement Amid Demographic Shifts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
DATA SOURCE
Kill Devil Hills, located in North Carolina, presents an intriguing case study for violent crime trends. From 2012 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 47 in 2012 to 18 in 2022, representing a 61.7% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 6,890 to 7,917, an increase of 14.9%.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently low, with only three reported cases over the 11-year period. In 2012, 2014, and 2022, there was one murder each year, resulting in a rate of approximately 0.13 per 1,000 residents in those years. The percentage of state murders attributed to Kill Devil Hills varied, reaching a peak of 0.64% in 2014 and 0.17% in 2022. Despite the occasional occurrence, the murder rate remains extremely low relative to the population growth.
Rape incidents have shown some fluctuation. In 2012, there were 3 reported cases (0.44 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.25% of state rapes. By 2019, this increased to 5 cases (0.67 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.3% of state rapes. However, by 2022, no rapes were reported, indicating a significant improvement in this category of violent crime.
Robbery trends have generally decreased over time. In 2012, there were 6 robberies (0.87 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.08% of state robberies. This number dropped to 1 in 2020 (0.13 per 1,000 residents) before slightly increasing to 3 in 2022 (0.38 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.06% of state robberies. Despite the small uptick in 2022, the overall trend shows a reduction in robbery incidents relative to population growth.
Aggravated assault has seen the most significant changes among violent crimes in the city. In 2012, there were 37 cases (5.37 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.24% of state aggravated assaults. This number fluctuated over the years, dropping to 12 cases in 2019 (1.60 per 1,000 residents) before rising slightly to 14 cases in 2022 (1.77 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.06% of state aggravated assaults. Overall, there has been a substantial decrease in the rate of aggravated assaults relative to population growth.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,228 per square mile in 2012 to 1,411 per square mile in 2022, there was a general decrease in violent crimes. This suggests that the growing density has not led to an increase in violent crime, contrary to what might be expected.
The racial composition of Kill Devil Hills has also seen changes that correlate with crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 92% in 2013 to 82% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 2% to 12% over the same period, violent crimes generally decreased. This indicates that the increasing diversity of the city has not led to an increase in violent crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decrease in violent crimes. Based on the current trends, it's projected that the total number of violent crimes could potentially drop below 15 per year by 2029, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the most common violent crime but at lower levels than seen in the early 2010s.
In summary, Kill Devil Hills has experienced a significant reduction in violent crimes over the past decade, despite population growth and increasing diversity. The most notable improvements have been in aggravated assaults and robberies, while murder rates have remained consistently low. These trends, coupled with the changing demographics, paint a picture of a city that has become safer over time, defying some common assumptions about the relationship between population density, diversity, and crime rates.
